All About HYBRIDS

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TomS
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Post by TomS »

VW di Brazil, tinggal pencet bisa minum metanol dan bisa minum bensin mutu rendahan (minyak tanah juga bisa), ini solusi negara ketiga, mungkin perlu buat Indonesia
Dan gue pernah lihat proposal dari group gede di Indonesia untuk buat perkebunan yang hasil utamanya adalah metanol. dgn syarat mereka mau invest jika pemerintah mendukung proyek mereka

Diesel di Europe juga keren apalagi jika ditambah hybrid.
Hybrid memang saat ini dirasa proyek yang flamboyan, tapi keliatannya tidak bisa tidak krn minyak tinggal dikit

Atau mungkin jika reaksi fusi dingin sudah berhasil, minyak sudah tidak diperlukan lagi.
Tapi itu kapan??? Bila pun berhasil pasti negara berkembang diembargo sama USA untuk ikut menikmati teknologi tersebut, takut dipakai buat kepentingan terrorism :evil:
conan
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Post by conan »

szli wrote:Nah, kalau mereka bisa jual hybrid dengan sedikit di atas bensin, why should they speculate dan naikan harga arbitrarily high ? Kalau harga hybrid benar murah, sudah pasti volume bisa lebih besar.
Yang menjual hybrid tidak jauh lebih mahal dari versi biasa adalah pabrikan, yaitu Toyota dan Honda.
Bafta itu bukan pabrikan tapi trader, exporter. Mereka juga tidak bisa beli banyak mobil hybrid dari pabrikan Jepang karena Toyota dan Honda sedang menggenjot kapasitas untuk memenuhi permintaan yang begitu tinggi dari pasar hybrid terbesar USA, pasar Jepang sendiri dan pasar Eropa (pasar terbesar Diesel, tapi Lexus RX400h sudah ada waiting list untuk 1000 unit lebih). Dan Lexus RX400h ini, walau bermesin V6 tapi performanya seperti mobil V8, dan orang mau membelinya dengan harga seharga model V8, karena iritnya seperti mobil V6 biasa! Bahkan kalau dipakai dalam kota terus, bisa seirit mobil 4 silinder.

Demand begitu tinggi, production capacity masih terbatas, you do the math.
szli wrote:Cars are not currencies or commodities. Saya ngak pernah dengar orang speculate cars, dan dengan premium more than $10,000 dollars.
Berarti Anda kurang banyak baca/cari tahu. Di negara2 maju, mobil yang jumlah produksinya terbatas, tidak massal, hampir selalu menjadi bahan spekulasi. Contohnya Ferrari 360 dan 430 Spider, dijual dengan premium sampai puluhan ribu dollar. Bahkan ada orang yang sudah setor DP dan inden beberapa unit beberapa tahun sebelum peluncurannya. Setelah launch ia keep one for use and sell the other units for a very handsome profit. Bahkan, tidak jarang setelah satu tahun dipakai, mobil itu masih bisa dijual dengan harga belinya dulu. Orang itu lalu menginden lagi model generasi berikutnya etc etc. Very clever. Apalagi limited edition supercars seperti McLaren F1 dan Ferrari Enzo, bisa dibilang the 'blue chip' of cars!

Dan, pada awal peluncurannya pun Prius dijual dengan premium.
szli wrote:My fellow Jedi, use yr instincts ! Search yr feelings ! Tolong pikir sekali lagi. All that new high tech hybrid mana mungkin selisih ama bensin biasa cuman selisih 34 jutaan without subsidi. Wong Innova D4D saja harus tambah extra 20 juta. Hybrid itu jauh lebih rumit, high tech dan very very different !
If this detective only use his feelings, aku akan menjadi fanatik Ghosn seperti Anda! Jangan lupa, I'm a fan of Ghosn. For what he had achieved. But I'm not a fan of missed opportunities.

Dan Anda masih belum mengerti juga bahwa mobil hybrid itu tidak 'very, very different' dari mobil biasa! Bung Szli, ketika Anda mengatakan 'very, very different', apakah Anda sebenarnya sudah mengerti konstruksi sebuah mobil hybrid? Mungkin Anda salah sangka dan menyamakan hybrid dengan fuel cell!

Katakan, apa yang 'very, very different'??
Mobil hybrid tetap pakai mesin bensin biasa. Gearbox biasa. Lihat Harrier hybrid (RX400h), Accord hybrid, Civic hybrid, Camry hybrid. Apa yang berbeda?
Satu2nya perbedaan adalah, ditambah motor listrik di antara mesin bensin dan gearbox!
Anda tahu tidak, bahwa Civic hybrid menggunakan mesin iDsi?
szli wrote:I tell U, jika hybrid benar cuman selisih segitu, indent hybrid like Prius bukan cuman 3 bulan, tapi 3 tahun mungkin !
Memang bukan cuma 3 bulan!
szli wrote:Nah, sekarang lihat angka diesel bagus :

Renault Clio 1.5 dCi = 4.2 L/100 km (wah ! Lebih OK dari hybrid Prius !)

Megane 1.9 dCi = 5.4 L/100 km

Megane Grandtour 1.5 dCi = 4.7 L/100 km

Grand Scenic 1.5 dCi = 5.3 L/100 km

VW Polo 1.9 TDI = 4.9 L/100 km

Here is the king of irit :

VW Polo 1.2 3L TDI = 3 L/100 km

Nissan Almera 1.5 dCi = 4.8 L/100 km

Nissan Primera 1.9 dCi = 5.7 L/100 km

Audi A3 1.9 TDI = 5.1 L/100 km

BMW 318d (lebih berat dan besar banding Prius, just as many of the above diesels) = 5.6 L/100 km

I guess that should be enough. So pointnya adalah mobil diesel bagus yang lebih besar dan berat banding Prius saja angka BBMnya sangat dekat ama hybrid prius.

Mungkin image hybrid itu adalah, orang lain bisa 1:10. Gue bisa 40-50 ! but data and research shows that good diesels yang independent (no need monetary help from anyone) bisa sangat irit juga.
Berarti Anda benar2 tidak paham tentang mobil hybrid! Anda HARUS INGAT, test di atas dilakukan di Eropa, dimana text itu dilakukan pada autobahn pada kecepatan tinggi untuk menguji iritnya mobil.

Terbalik dengan mobil bensin biasa/diesel biasa, hybrid justru akan lebih irit jika banyak dipakai di kemacetan kota, kondisi full stop and go!
Merayap perlahan dan banyak berhenti, mobil biasa akan lebih boros, betul?
Pada hybrid, justru pada kondisi begitu, yang aktif bisa hanya motor listrik, mesin bensin mati. Bahkan, motor listrik ini akan recharged itself setiap kali kita mengerem!
szli wrote:So maybe abt hybrid we shall always have different opinions. But at least I share yr view that diesel hebat benar luar biasa !
Dan eventually Anda akan menyadari juga bahwa hybrid itu luar biasa, seperti halnya dulu Anda belum share my view bahwa diesel itu luar biasa!
Atau bahwa C24 akan diluncurkan tahun 2005.
szli wrote:Kalau saya, lebih respect anak middle class itu, banding yang kaya, tapi di bantu terus ama orang tuanya. Kalau orangtuanya mati, dia sudah mampu profit ya bagus. Tapi kalau sudah ngak ada bantuan orang tuanya dia masih ngak profitable, habis di makan si anak orang lebih miskin itu
!

Aku tidak berminat berkomentar, Anda ini terlalu banyak analogi. Istri lah, anak lah dsb. Kondisi tiap permasalahan berbeda dan tidak semua bisa dianalogikan!
szli wrote:Dan again search yr feelings Bung conan. Do U really think that right now, inside Nissan's design / engineering studio, mereka sangking malas/begonya sampai ngak mau pelajarin / research Hybrid diesels etc. ? Ngak mungkin dong. Trust me. They are studying and researching. Cuman mereka lagi tunggu moment yang tepat untuk keluarkannya.
Yes they are, tapi BUKAN karena mereka 'lagi tunggu moment yang tepat', tapi karena mereka JAUH TERTINGGAL dibanding Honda dan Toyota! Ghosn should just admit it, daripada di depan publik gembar-gembor bahwa hybrid is not the future, tapi di belakang diam2 me-license hybrid dari Toyota dan juga terus mengembangkan hybrid mereka sendiri.
szli wrote:Takutnya kali ini Toyota / Honda seperti manajemen Nissan sebelum Ghosn, era tahun 1990an. Saat itu Nissan juga bukan [cencored], tapi manajemennya somehow make mistakes and her fortunes dimmed.
HA, tidak mungkin! Apakah Anda tidak tahu how well Toyota and Honda are currently doing, dan mereka punya visi jauh ke depan. Contohnya, tidak akan lama lagi Toyota akan menjadi no 1 dunia dalam jumlah angka penjualan (kalau dalam hal keuntungan, mereka sudah lama no 1).
Anda terlalu underestimate Toyota dan Honda, dan terlalu overestimate Nissan dan Ghosn. Kalau bukan fanatism, apalagi? Aku fans Nissan dan Ghosn, tapi aku tidak selalu subjektif. Give me realism over fanatism any day!

Begini saja, bung Szli. Aku juga lelah menjelaskan dengan kata2 sejelas mungkin kalau Anda tidak mau mencernanya. Sudah ada minimal 1 unit Prius di salah satu IU di Jakarta, Anda carilah di koran dan mintalah test drive, Anda kan gemar mencoba mobil baru?

Nah, setelah Anda test drive sebuah Prius, postinglah di sini kesan2 Anda, barulah kita lanjutkan kembali diskusi ini. OK? ;)

Btw, setelah Anda test drive, catatlah angka fuel consumption yang terukur pada onboard computernya. Jangan lupa!
Oh ya, tanyakanlah juga, apakah sulit atau gampang mendapatkan sebuah Prius untuk dijual. :)
szli
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Post by szli »

OK lah ! Saya cuman mau kasih berita from the other side. If anyone disagrees, its OK. So I guess I'll close this debate.
szli
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Post by szli »

Guys, saya buka sebentar pintu topic ini dan tutup lagi supaya perang ngak jadi panas.

Kali ini saya bukan mau ngomong apa, cuman mau summary interview koran Jakarta Post ama Mr. Johny Darmawan, President Director Toyota Astra Motor.

In that article, he actually admitted many things abt hybrid cars for Indonesia. One, kenapa Hybrid belum cocok untuk Indonesia dan tidak akan di jual dalam waktu dekat di sini :

1. Masih terlalu mahal. Di USA, uncle Sam sangat mendukung. hybrid buyers di kasih tax relief / incentive. Will the Indonesian govt do this ? Jangan jangan ini, impor hybrid 0% tax saja belum tentu di kasih.

2. Hybrids are more sensitive to road conditions. Mr. Darmawan even said, imagine what happens to hybrid cars here saat ketemu kondisi banjir ?

My own interpretation is, hybrid kan batterinya jauh lebih rumit, besar dan voltasi listriknya lebih besar banding aki mobil biasa. So mungkin Pak Johny artinya sedikit banjir saja akan membahayakan mobil hybrid di Indonesia. Say mobil biasa bisa renang 30 cm air. Kalau sedikit air saja bisa ancam component hybridnya.

Apalagi kalau batterainya rusak gara gara banjir. Servicenya dan sparepartnya bisa robek kantong ! Seperti beli handphone 3 juta lebih. Kalau rusak servicenya 1 satu ! Nah loh !

I think he is right ! Kok saya ngak kepikiran yah ? So bukan TAM ngak inggin jual hybrid di Indonesia, as Indonesia's jam roads justru should offer more fuel savings. Just that kondisi Indonesia masih jauh dari ideal untuk hybrid cars.

So guys, if some IUs tawarin hybrid, think twice ! If the Presdir of Toyota Astra saja kurang yakin ama feasibility of hybrids in Indonesia, think twice !

He is smart. Thats why he is the Presdir of TAM and not me ! And also why don't expect any hybrids anytime soon here !

Siapa tau hybrid kalau kena banjir, strum listrik yang besar bisa ancam passengernya, lebih bahaya banding listriknya Emperor Palpatine ! Betul gak Mr. Conan ?

Terus habis shock dari listrik kuat sampai pingsan, abis bangun kena shock lagi dari bengkel TAM. Pak, total biaya service dan ganti batterainya 40 juta. Wah ! Langsung Pingsan lagi !! Imagine this in comic form and U will get the gist of it.
conan
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Post by conan »

szli wrote:2. Hybrids are more sensitive to road conditions. Mr. Darmawan even said, imagine what happens to hybrid cars here saat ketemu kondisi banjir ?

My own interpretation is, hybrid kan batterinya jauh lebih rumit, besar dan voltasi listriknya lebih besar banding aki mobil biasa. So mungkin Pak Johny artinya sedikit banjir saja akan membahayakan mobil hybrid di Indonesia. Say mobil biasa bisa renang 30 cm air. Kalau sedikit air saja bisa ancam component hybridnya.

Apalagi kalau batterainya rusak gara gara banjir. Servicenya dan sparepartnya bisa robek kantong ! Seperti beli handphone 3 juta lebih. Kalau rusak servicenya 1 satu ! Nah loh !

I think he is right ! Kok saya ngak kepikiran yah ? So bukan TAM ngak inggin jual hybrid di Indonesia, as Indonesia's jam roads justru should offer more fuel savings. Just that kondisi Indonesia masih jauh dari ideal untuk hybrid cars.

So guys, if some IUs tawarin hybrid, think twice ! If the Presdir of Toyota Astra saja kurang yakin ama feasibility of hybrids in Indonesia, think twice !
Seperti biasa, bung Szli selalu bermuka dua. Pendapatnya bisa berbeda dari satu thread ke thread yang lain, bahkan dalam satu thread yang sama (C24 vs C25, airbag vs no airbag, Serena/Fortuner di bawah 200 juta dulu yes sekarang no, X-Trail 2.0 dulu yes sekarang no dsb dsb).
Silakan baca sendiri apa yang baru saja juga dikatakan Mr. Szli di thread Fortuner :
szli wrote: 1. Betul, Jakarta kadang ada jalan rusak, banjir. BUT for me, itu jarang terjadi. Artinya most of my trips ngak lewat jalan demikian parah sampai c24 ngak bisa lewat.

FYI, till today c24 saya ngak pernah mentok. For minor to medium bad roads, c24 juga bisa lewat tanpa mentok. Betul, I can't go to La Piazza, but how many parking spaces in Jakarta is that crazy ? Ngak banyak. Anyway the Fortuner juga ngak bisa ke La Piazza juga.

Dan jika banjir, I will simply NOT go out ! Mobil tinggal parkir di rumah. Toh if the water gets really bad, the Fortuner juga terancam. Fortuner, good SUV as she is, is NOT an amphibian !

For me, there are 365 days in a year. Hari hari banjir paling cuma berapa hari. Lain urusan kalau tiap tahun banjir 1 bulan durasinya misalnya. So kalau banjir sampai 1 meter, SUVs and MPVs sama sama terancam. Dan jika dua duanya mesinnya ngak di starter dan knalpotnya di tutup, dua duanya juga sama amannya.

Benar, jika saat banjir dalam, we get stuck in banjir, Fortuner akan lebih tolong. But how often does that happen ? Dan saya kalau bayar 295 juta, tau lagi banjir, mending baya mobil tua keluar. Sayang mobil 295 juta di gituin.
Jika banjir Anda simpan Serena di rumah dan pakai Stream, atau simply NOT GO OUT. Jadi apa bedanya jika Anda punya Alphard hybrid dan Serena biasa??

Akuilah, bung Szli, Anda hanya against hybrid hanya karena Ghosn tertinggal dalam hybrid, dan Anda biased towards everything Nissan (Serena, AUV, Serena again, AUV again) hanya karena Anda fanatik pada Ghosn.

I'm a fan of Mr. Ghosn too, but even I'm getting embarassed with you supporting everything he says and defending all his blunders! Wake up and smell the coffee, for crying out loud. Open your eyes!

Dan sekarang aku akan menunjukkan fakta yang sebelumnya aku lupa untuk bring up selama ini, diambil dari interview Autocar Asean dengan Shinichi Matsumoto of Toyota Japan :
Autocar : Would you say that hybrid technology is a transitional technology between the internal combustion engine and the fuel cell powered vehicles?

Matsumoto : The battery technology, power generator, energy management technology, regenerative braking system, and many other areas which we are now developing for our hybrid vehicles will also be used in fuel cell vehicle systems. I personally believe that all cars will soon have hybrid systems, petrol or fuel cell, and Toyota has positioned this technology as its key technology.
Anda sadar, sekarang? Yang disebut hybrid adalah penggunaan 2 sistem yg berbeda dalam satu aplikasi. Hari ini, mesin bensin + listrik. Besok, diesel + listrik. Dekade depan, fuel cell + motor listrik. Dan fuel cell ini hanya sebagai sumber energi yang menghasilkan LISTRIK. Untuk menggerakkan mobil fuel cell yang digunakan adalah MOTOR LISTRIK, seperti yang digunakan mobil hybrid bensin sekarang! Karena itu emisinya bisa nol persen. Anda pikir mobil fuel cell masih membakar bensin? Hydrogen-nya tidak dibakar (halo, Hiroshima? Nagasaki?), tapi digunakan untuk menghasilkan listrik!

Jadi kalau Anda mengatakan bahwa hybrid is not the future because fuel cell is, padahal keduanya sama2 menggunakan motor listrik, berarti Anda justru menganggap hybrid is the future!

Jika Anda benar2 sudah mempelajari tentang cara kerja mobil hybrid dan fuel cell sebelum membuka thread ini, Anda harusnya tahu tentang hal ini! Bahwa mobil fuel cell ini menggunakan semua komponen2 mobil hybrid, dan satu2nya yang tidak digunakan adalah mesin bensinnya!

Tapi tampaknya Anda tidak pernah mau research lebih jauh tentang hybrid/fuel cell, karena tujuan Anda membuka thread ini sebenarnya bukan untuk berdiskusi tentang hybrid/fuel cell, tapi semata2 hanya karena Anda ingin membela Carlos Ghosn yang (karena Nissan sudah tertinggal) mengatakan hybrid is not the future (padahal diam2 Nissan juga membeli dan mengembangkan hybrid dari Toyota)!

Dan apa yang dikatakan Johny Darmawan? OH, PLEASE! Kini rekan2 lain juga sudah menyadari bahwa Indonesia hanya dijadikan pasar kelas tiga, tempat membuang stok lama dan model murah. Serena C24? Avanza dan Innova? 'Global Quality'? Halo, Pak Johny, Anda lihat berapa banyak Toyota Wish, Harrier dan Alphard di jalan?? NMI, C25 sudah dijual di Jepang sana.
Mengapa tidak memasukkan mereka? 'Global Quality my foot!'

Dalam thread ini Mr. Szli sama sekali tidak mau tahu keunggulan mobil hybrid, dan hanya mau tahu kelemahannya, karena hanya blindly defend Ghosn, Ghosn, Ghosn. Karena itu diskusi ini tidak pernah berkembang, as I'm the only one providing facts. Mr. Szli only uses his own interpretations, like :
szli wrote:My own interpretation is, hybrid kan batterinya jauh lebih rumit,
I rest my case. 8)
szli
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Post by szli »

I am not 2 faced. Bisa saja c24 bisa renang 30 cm masih OK. Dan hybrid berenang 10 cm air saja risiko kena cipratan air.

Then buddy, why don't U ask Pak Johny Darmawan about his explanation then ?

In short, Pak Johny realized that Indonesians juga belum ready untuk bayar extra ribuan dollar untuk hybrid yang irit bensinnya tiap tahun cuman ratusan dollar. Istilah balik modalnya mungkin lebih dari 10 tahun !

Don't forget, we are self-styled car enthusiasts. Pak Johny Darmawan is the Presdir of Toyota Indonesia ! He studies and solves car issues in Indonesia everyday. Guess who is right ? Me or him ? Siapa lebih ngerti, dia atau saya ?
szli
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Post by szli »

Oh, jangan lupa, like Ghosn, both of us think its an exciting and promising technology. But kalau economically not value creating but value destroying gimana ?

OK U can bilang jangan pikirkan duit terus. Save the oil reserves, Well, ada website pernah bilang ada benarnya juga. One, jika orang pakai mobil super irit, bisa saja dia lebih sering pakai mobilnya terus. Cuman berapa ratus meter ngak mau jalan kaki, tetap pakai mobil. Istilah lebih boros dalam hal distance travelled.

On the other hand, someone with an ordinary engine yang lebih boros, mungkin gara gara high oil price akan lebih hati hati / irit dalam hal pemakaian mobilnya. So who knows the total oil comsumed by hybrids could still be greater as the owners think he owns a hybrid, irit so can be more carefree dalam hal pemakaian mobil.

Seperti hal Premium lah. Orang pakai Premium kan pikir wah ! Bensinnya murah, so OK lah tiap bulan jalan 30,000 km. Tapi kalau Premium subsidinya di cabut, harga Premium jadi 3500, mungkin dia tiap tahun cuma travel 15,000. Guess who saves more oil ?

So lets say a conventional engine owner travels 15,000 km, less than dulu soalnya bensin jadi mahal. Si hybrid guy pikir, eh, mobil gue kan irit (apalagi kalau dia seperti banyak orang, ngak hitung ratio bbm dengan cermat), tiap bulan jalan 20,000. And that say the hybrid is 20% more efficient (meskipun ada model tertentu yang cuman 8% more efficient as reported)

The conventional guy burns 15,000 / say 8 = 1875 liters a month. The hybrid guy burns 20,000 / 10 = 2000 liters ! And he has spent extra thousands of dollars of tax payers money !

U think this kind of thing is rubbish ? Coba saya mau tanya, kalau sekarang Premium harganya bukan 2400 tapi 3500, do U think orang Indo tidak berobah dalam habit pemakainan mobilnya ? Pasti ada robah dong ? Kalau ngak kantongnya bisa sakit nanti.

So anything being subsidized is a misallocation of scarce resources and distorts behaviour.

Hybrid technology by itself tidak dosa. Yang dosa itu how can U try to sell something yang costnya lebih dari valuenya ? Seperti Premium lah !

Anda sendiri teriak tentang subsidi Premium not good for everybody sebenernya. Whats the difference with hybrids ? It means the poorer public is also subsidizing the richer people who buys these hybrids.

The reason why this country is screwed is because the government is selling something (premium at 2400) whose sales value is less than its real cost. Exactly like what Ghosn is saying. Jual hal yang nilai jualnya lebih rendah dari ongkosnya itu pasti nanti undang penyakit ! Fuel, cars, aeroplanes or whatever. Such things cannot last forever.

Coba kalau misalnya besok ada berita SBY akan subsidi puluhan juta for everyone who buys a hybrid here in Indonesia seperti USA government, are U going to shout " Hurrah ! " Hybrids are here now ! Is that justice ?

Lets say Mr. Conan, U are not as rich as U are now. Besok U realize some of yr tax dollars goes to reducing my cost of buying a hybrid. Are U telling me U will still smile and say " Its OK pal. Go on save the earth's oil, I am happy to pay more tax to help people like U ? " Mending cuman saya. Kalau yang dapat subsidi ribuan orang gimana ?

Ghosn did not say no. He only say yes if these hybrids can be sold at prices that don't need subsidies to be accepted by the car buying public.

Wah ! Topic ini tiap kali buka Pandoras Box !
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Post by conan »

Omong kosong. Bung Szli, jawablah dengan jujur, setelah harga Premium naik dari Rp 1800 menjadi Rp 2400, apakah Anda menempuh lebih sedikit kilometer? Aku yakin tidak.

Dan angka2 yg Anda sebut, semuanya hanya berdasarkan asumsi Anda. Kalau yang seperti itu, aku juga bisa.
Anda lupa, atau memang tidak mau tahu, dan akan aku katakan sekali lagi, kali ini coba Anda cerna artinya :

Penghematan terbesar mobil hybrid adalah pada kemacetan, kondisi stop and go, di mana hanya motor listrik yang aktif dan tidak membakar bensin. Sebaliknya pada mobil biasa, kondisi stop and go ini adalah kondisi pemborosan yang paling parah, betul?

Test2 yg dilakukan majalah luar negri dilakukan pada kondisi highway, kecepatan tinggi. Anda cari saja user review pemilik Prius, ada yg sudah mencoba di jalan2 biasa dan bisa mencapai 1:30. Dan ini belum dicoba pada kondisi kemacetan seperti di Jakarta!

Jadi kalau mobil biasa setiap hari dipakai dalam kemacetan, katakan 1:6, untuk menempuh 6,000 Km dia membakar 1000 liter bensin! Mobil hybrid yang dipakai di kemacetan, misalnya 1 : 24, untuk menempuh 6,000 Km dia hanya membakar 250 liter bensin!
Bahkan mobil hybrid bisa dipakai dengan 'battery' mode, hanya menggunakan motor listrik. Misalnya di perumahan, hanya untuk ke supermarket dalam kompleks. Jika mobil bensin, tentu boros karena begitu dinyalakan, sudah membakar bensin untuk menghidupkan mesin. Lalu dipakai dengan kecepatan rendah. Matikan mesin, parkir, nyalakan lagi, bakar lagi bensin.

Dan Anda selalu mengatakan mobil hybrid 'sepuluh tahun baru balik modal, blah blah blah', katakan pada semua orang yg membeli Lexus RX400h, mereka mendapatkan mobil seharga BMW X5 V8, dengan performa V8, tapi fuel consumption V6 (atau 4-cylinder). Dengan harga fuel sekarang, tidak lama juga akan balik modal!

Dan Anda selalu mengatakan ttg subsidi blah blah blah.
Sekali lagi, yang mensubsidi harga hybrid adalah pabrikannya, bukan pemerintah. Pemerintah hanya memberikan insentif keringanan pajak bagi mobil hybrid, sama seperti insentif untuk mobil diesel di Eropa.

Dan bahkan, kini Toyota sudah meraup untung untuk setiap unit Prius : Interview Autocar dengan Mr. Katsumoto, Prius project General Manager :
Autocar : In the domestic market, the new Prius has the same price as the old one. How has this been achieved when there is so much new technology in the car?

Matsumoto : Actually, the new Prius is slightly cheaper than the previous model. The first generation was 2.15 million Yen and we are selling the new one at 2.12 million Yen - and we can make a profit on each unit, too. We have learn a lot more since developing the first Prius and as a result, many components have been redesigned or improved so that the cost can be much, much lower now.
Bandingkan saja dengan harga Fit Vtec di Jepang yg 1.5 juta Yen!
Toyota kini sudah make profits dari tiap unit Prius dan model2 hybridnya yg lain seperti andalannya Lexus RX400h. Sebentar lagi akan diluncurkan versi hybrid dari model termewah Lexus yaitu LS-series.

Ghosn jelas tidak tahu hal ini karena dia masih membeli teknologi hybrid dari Toyota, dan tentu Toyota menjualnya mahal pada Ghosn, dan mereka mendapat untung besar! Kalau tidak untung, ngapain dijual??

Siapapun tahu, bahwa harga teknologi baru akan semakin murah jika terus dikembangkan dan jumlah produksi bertambah! Kecuali mungkin Anda, bung Szli!
Kalau tidak dikembangkan, sebuah teknologi ya tidak akan menjadi murah!
Contoh, mobil full fuel-cell akan dipangkas biaya produksinya dari $ 2,000,000 today hingga $ 50,000, dalam 15-20 tahun dr sekarang.
Kalau tidak ada yg mengembangkan fuel cell dr sekarang (seperti GM, Daimler-Chrysler, Toyota, Honda), fuel cell tidak akan menjadi murah dengan sendirinya! Dan hybrid Toyota sekarang sudah menjadi jauh lebih murah, karena mereka sudah terus mengembangkannya sejak 1997 (pertama kali dijual Toyota Prius dan Honda Insight). Bahkan diesel milik Renault yang diandalkan Ghosn juga, hari ini bisa murah karena dikembangkan dari dulu!

Hybrid hanya membutuhkan waktu jauh lebih sedikit lagi drpd fuel-cell! Hanya dalam beberapa tahun lagi, Toyota akan memiliki versi hybrid dari semua lineupnya, dan eventually semua unit mobil yang dijual Toyota sudah hybrid!

Anda mengatakan :
szli wrote:Loh, kalau ada fakta baru, atau new better explanation, apa salahnya berobah pikiran ?
Dari pada dableknya seperti onta, nanti masuk jurang juga masih ngak mau berobah arah ?
Justru this proves I am not a stubborn man. If U got real good explanation, I will be open minded enough to change my mind. Gitu loh !
Omong kosong, gitu lho! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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Post by szli »

Hey, jangan banding versi standard vs hybrid ama Lexus vs BMW.

Look, the point is very simple. U get exactly the same car body, interior, seats etc. I repeat, SAME.

EXCEPT hybrid U got to pay a few thousand dollars more, and U save a few hundred dollars in gas a year. Thats where the balik modal 10 tahun lebih comes from.

Of course kalau banding Lexus ama BMW uda urusan lain dong. Kan badannya, mereknya, gengsinya, featurenya etc. beda.

A hybrid Alphard and a non hybrid Alphard are exactly the same machine, U get the same comfort, ride and handling etc. Cuman bedanya U pay extra a few thousand dollars and got to wait many years before U get that extra money back in fuel savings.

Kalau ngak ada tax incentive (if this is not a subsidi, then what is it ?), only people rich and want to make a lifestyle statement wants to buy.

Its like tomorrow I sell U a device, say SuperHemat, connected to the fuel lines. It cost U a few thousand dollars. And the fuel savings is a few hundred dollars a year. Without outside incentives, will U buy it ?

Don't tell me I don't know how a hybrid works. Of course I know.

That Matsumoto guy is lying ! Surf saja banyakan di internet. Yah of course if he ignores the goverment role, Toyota may make a profit. I doubt it even. Waktu itu saya ketemu satu website yang ada orang Toyota juga ngaku its making a loss. Its just politically correct. For image building only.

Nanti saya ketemu website itu lagi saya akan cantum di sini.
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Post by conan »

szli wrote:Look, the point is very simple. U get exactly the same car body, interior, seats etc. I repeat, SAME.
A hybrid Alphard and a non hybrid Alphard are exactly the same machine, U get the same comfort, ride and handling etc. Cuman bedanya U pay extra a few thousand dollars and got to wait many years before U get that extra money back in fuel savings.
WRONG. For more money, you get MORE POWER.
A Lexus 400h is substantially more powerful than an RX 330. That is why people are lining up for it.
An Alphard 2.4L Hybrid is more powerful than an Alphard 2.4L gasoline only.
szli wrote:tell me I don't know how a hybrid works. Of course I know.
Kalau begitu mengapa Anda mengatakan model biasa dan model hybrid are exactly the same, padahal ada tambahan horsepower yang berasal dari motor listrik.
Dan quoted from above :
Autocar : Would you say that hybrid technology is a transitional technology between the internal combustion engine and the fuel cell powered vehicles?

Matsumoto : The battery technology, power generator, energy management technology, regenerative braking system, and many other areas which we are now developing for our hybrid vehicles will also be used in fuel cell vehicle systems. I personally believe that all cars will soon have hybrid systems, petrol or fuel cell, and Toyota has positioned this technology as its key technology.


Anda sadar, sekarang? Yang disebut hybrid adalah penggunaan 2 sistem yg berbeda dalam satu aplikasi. Hari ini, mesin bensin + listrik. Besok, diesel + listrik. Dekade depan, fuel cell + motor listrik. Dan fuel cell ini hanya sebagai sumber energi yang menghasilkan LISTRIK. Untuk menggerakkan mobil fuel cell yang digunakan adalah MOTOR LISTRIK, seperti yang digunakan mobil hybrid bensin sekarang! Karena itu emisinya bisa nol persen. Anda pikir mobil fuel cell masih membakar bensin? Hydrogen-nya tidak dibakar (halo, Hiroshima? Nagasaki?), tapi digunakan untuk menghasilkan listrik!

Jadi kalau Anda mengatakan bahwa hybrid is not the future because fuel cell is, padahal keduanya sama2 menggunakan motor listrik, berarti Anda justru menganggap hybrid is the future!
szli wrote:That Matsumoto guy is lying !
Whoa, Mr. Szli, that is a serious accusation! Tuduhan yang berat.
Setiap kali berdebat, aku tidak pernah having to resort to accusing seseorang berbohong dengan sengaja, apalagi jika komentarnya dimuat di respectable publication seperti Autocar yang merupakan majalah otomotif internasional. Tentu saja official quote dari publikasi seperti dari majalah Autocar memiliki legitimasi yang lebih daripada hanya a page on the internet. Anda sampai menuduh demikian, are you sure you're nor being subjective? Hmm?? Atas dasar apa Anda begitu membenci teknologi hybrid, sampai2 Anda tidak senang bahwa kini sebuah teknologi baru telah bisa ditekan ongkos produksinya, dan bisa affordable bagi lebih banyak orang?

Apakah Anda tidak menyadari bahwa teknologi hybrid menjadi semakin murah produksinya, by the day and even by the hour while we're debating?

I demand you back up your statement. Apa perasaan Anda jika ada yang menyebut sebuah statement Anda sebagai sebuah kebohongan? Anda tentu akan demand them to prove that you did.

I will state my source : interview di atas dilakukan oleh reporter Autocar Asean, Mr. Chris Yap, dengan Mr. Shinichi Matsumoto, the Prius development team project General Manager dari Toyota Motor Corp, pada event The Eco Products International Fair in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Dimuat secara hitam di atas putih di Autocar Asean edisi October 2004.

Jangan lupa Anda periksa tanggal dan tahun dibuatnya artikel sumber internet Anda. Ongkos produksi sebuah teknologi bisa berbeda dalam hitungan bulan, apalagi tahun. Make sure it's a current information, dan bukannya artikel beberapa tahun yang lalu!
Last edited by conan on Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by mpoezz »

tambah panas aja disini yah
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Post by conan »

Detective Conan VS the Dark Lord :mrgreen:
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Nice one Bung Mpoezz ! Lebih panas dari hawa Jakarta sekarang !

Bung conan and friends, read this article very very carefully. Its a recent article 21 March 2005, and its fair soalnya bukan dari mulut Toyota or Nissan. It comes from American people thinking abt the pros and cons of the hybrid subsidi :

http://www.mackinac.org/article.asp?ID=7008

Tax Breaks for Hybrid Buyers

Amidst the cutting-edge Ferraris, Jaguars, and Lexus concept vehicles at the 2005 North American International Auto Show in Detroit in January was one particularly pricey concept that is a government creation: a federal tax gift to upper-class Americans buying fuel-efficient hybrid cars.

While Washington, D.C., played host to the presidential inauguration, 6,000 international journalists and nearly 1,000,000 spectators descended on America’s Motor City for a different kind of inauguration: the annual rollout of the auto industry’s newest products. One of the market’s hottest niches is for “green” vehicles like the Toyota Prius and the Honda Accord Hybrid — gasoline-electric hybrids marketed to socially-conscious buyers with six-figure incomes. In 2004, hybrid sales reached 80,000 units in the United States, mostly to “luxury-type vehicle owners, people who want to be first on their block with plasma screen TVs and all that,” says Ford spokesman Dan Bedore.

But unlike other low-volume niches, such as plasma TVs or high-performance sports cars, hybrid buyers will not be paying a premium for their products. In fact, they will be receiving a federal subsidy of $2,000 per car.

Billed by its congressional supporters as a way to seed new technology in the fight against global warming and oil dependence, the hybrid tax break has lined the pockets of some of the richest people in America.

For example, the Toyota Prius — America’s most popular hybrid, with 30,000 units sold last year — is typically bought by childless couples with an annual household income of $100,000, according to Toyota’s own demographic study. The car has become a status symbol among the Hollywood elite. Multimillionaire celebrities like Cameron Diaz, Leonardo DiCaprio, Larry David and Jack Black are all proud owners of the Prius and its $2,000 tax break. And this year, Toyota is offering its second hybrid vehicle through its luxury divison, Lexus. The Lexus E330 sports utility vehicle hybrid — already pre-sold to 11,000 buyers — is being gobbled up by hybrid highbrows making $130,000 per year on average.

With the Lexus SUV and other new hybrid offerings from Mercedes, Honda and Ford, hybrid sales are expected to more than double this year to 165,000 units in the United States. That means a total federal subsidy of some $330 million to upper-income customers.

Sage Eastman, press spokesman for the tax break’s congressional sponsor, Rep. Dave Camp from Midland, Mich., defends the policy: “Congress wants to encourage emerging technology that can have a lasting effect on the environment. Initially, the tax break may have been taken advantage of by wealthier individuals, but in the long run we’ll see a broader use as more cars are introduced into the market.”

Keith Ashdown, vice president for policy for the nonpartisan Taxpayers for Common Sense, however, is skeptical that the hybrid tax credit is serving its purpose: “You want tax breaks that alter consumer behavior. This tax break probably isn’t working because it’s putting money into the pockets of people who would buy this product in the first place.”

Even with the subsidy, however, auto companies are losing their shirts on hybrids.

Since gasoline-electric hybrids use two power sources — a combination of a gasoline engine and an electric motor — they are substantially more expensive than standard cars. Though hybrids typically sell at a sticker price of $3,500 more than comparable gasoline cars, manufacturers are not recouping their costs.

One indicator of hybrid technology’s expense came this December when General Motors and Chrysler announced a pooling of resources to develop their own hybrid vehicles. Says David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich.: “The sheer costs are horrendous. They’ll do a whole lot better with a partnership.”

The costs put manufacturers in a box. They cannot make money on hybrids, and yet their public relations value among hybrid supporters in the press, Hollywood and elsewhere means they cannot afford not to. Even General Motors’ product guru Bob Lutz, a hybrid skeptic, admits that GM’s decision not to get into the hybrid business was a mistake.

“The reason we missed the boat on hybrids is we business-cased it too much,” he recently told the Detroit Free Press. “We took this hard analytical look at it and said for that amount of investment to sell that quantity of vehicles where we lose money on every one is irresponsible vis-à-vis the shareholders. We failed to appreciate that Toyota basically treated it as an advertising expense. They said we need these to demonstrate our . . . concern for the environment, capture the imagination of the growing environmental movement in the U.S., and get all those East and West Coast intellectual opinion leaders, movie stars, etc., on our side, which they successfully did. So even if they lose money on it, it’s cheap at twice the price.”

Whether or not tax credits should be going to well-off car buyers, the hybrid subsidy is but a foot in the door of federal efforts to fundamentally alter the auto market. And despite the blue state concentration of hybrid buyers, it is an effort that transcends party lines.

Congressman Camp, for example, is a self-described conservative Republican. He sponsored the hybrid tax break, his spokesman Eastman explains, because, “Congress is saying now is the time to transition to sources that are eco-friendly and lower our dependence on foreign oil.”

While the U.S. government has firmly rejected participation in the Kyoto Treaty limiting greenhouse gases, automakers are under tremendous pressure to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions. Their business is a global one, and European and Asian governments have already moved to put caps on carbon dioxide emissions.

Even in the United States, automakers are facing new regulations in California and Northeast states to limit greenhouse emissions through mileage standards, regulations that could fundamentally change what consumers would be allowed to buy. Add to this the very real threat of tobacco-like global warming lawsuits against automakers, and a transportation future in which the government subsidizes industry to make only “earth-friendly” vehicles looks quite plausible.

It is a future that is being actively promoted by big auto players like GM and Ford — chief advocates for Camp’s tax credits not only for hybrids, but ultimately for cars powered by “renewable resources” like hydrogen.

In a somber, almost religious, news conference held on the Detroit auto show’s opening day, GM CEO Richard Wagoner dropped all pretence that cars are about individuality and fun. He sketched a “guilt-free driving” future where “government and industry will have to solve together” the challenges for transitioning to a hydrogen transportation system.

“This should excite you for what it means to society. Whatever motivates you — global warming or the sustainable use of resources — the hydrogen economy is coming,” he said, upon introducing the Sequel, a hydrogen-fueled concept. “This is a bold step toward the reinvention of the automobile. This is our moonshot.”

And like NASA’s moonshot, this ambitious government-industry re-invention of the auto won’t be cheap. Obviously, its costs will dwarf those of the hybrid subsidy.

To the car enthusiasts making their annual pilgrimage to Detroit, the auto show is still a celebration of individual transportation. But listen closely to the industry’s observers and you perceive an undertone that cars are increasingly seen as a threat to be harnessed for societal goals. If, as players as diverse as GM’s Wagoner, Cameron Diaz, and Rep. Camp seem to suggest, the goal of automobiles is no longer to offer a good consumer product, but to save the planet, who will be able to say no?

Sebenernya dari article ini, Bung Conan, yr thinking is like some of the Americans, so concerned abt oil that its OK to pay the horrendous cost. Cuman I tell U, if this thing works, fine !

But if not, it means what Toyota and the US government have done is even worse than our local Premium BBM subsidi. Dosa tau ! Sudah paksa orang miskin subsidi orang kaya beli mobil dan masi rugi lagi ! Dan mereka sendiri juga tekor nanti. Kalau masi marah ama saya, go back and read this article from the start again. U will see what I mean.

Rich people have the luxury of thinking abt saving oil, like the Hollywood Stars. But ordinary folks trying to make a living will cry at having to help these rich people buy politically correct vehicles that STILL loses money even for their own manufacturers.

To make U angrier a bit, remember what Ghosn said " Every body loses, nobody comes out ahead "

Maybe if Ghosn will support using all those wasted money to accelerate research on alternative - non fossil energy resources.

And better still governments should raise taxes on car buyers and BBM, NOT subsidizing car buyers ! In that way, there will be a slow down in car population growth, less oil burned, less pollution, more people using smaller fuel efficient engines that are cheap. Everybody will win in the end, meskipun in the short term, many cannot dream of having big cars.
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Post by szli »

Heres another one from head of Toyota's research himself, dia akui kok konsumen beli hybrid sekarang ngak financially wise kok.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2005/06 ... finan.html

Dated 16 June 2005. so its new news.
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Post by szli »

Dan setelah baca article tax breaks for hybrid buyers, mungkin Bung Conan's source isn't deliberately lying. He is FORCED to lie soalnya takut di PECAT ama CEO baru. Fujio Cho sudah out dari Toyota.

Bukan saya yah, tapi di forum US malah ada orang yang tebak dia di remove soalnya for getting Toyota into this hybrid mess...Sekarang mau get out gracefully lose face, maju juga masih rugi terus. seperti Macbeth " Maju susah, mundur juga susah, gimana yah ? "

Untung Toyota dari penjualan mobil conventional masih raup untung besar, bisa cover these losses. Well call it conventional cars subsidising hybrid cousins. but like Ghosn said, such things cannot last forever.

How bung Conan, feeling the Jakarta hot air juga ? Jangan sampai pilek loh ! Oh kalau batuk pilek, take Actifed. Its good medicine which I am taking now.
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Post by conan »

Bung Szli, Anda baca tidak di article yang Anda muat :
Even General Motors’ product guru Bob Lutz, a hybrid skeptic, admits that GM’s decision not to get into the hybrid business was a mistake.

“The reason we missed the boat on hybrids is we business-cased it too much,” he recently told the Detroit Free Press. “We took this hard analytical look at it and said for that amount of investment to sell that quantity of vehicles where we lose money on every one is irresponsible vis-à-vis the shareholders. We failed to appreciate that Toyota basically treated it as an advertising expense. They said we need these to demonstrate our . . . concern for the environment, capture the imagination of the growing environmental movement in the U.S., and get all those East and West Coast intellectual opinion leaders, movie stars, etc., on our side, which they successfully did. So even if they lose money on it, it’s cheap at twice the price.”
Bob Lutz is big enough to admit it, but clearly Ghosn is not. But he keeps buying hybrids from Toyota. Because he already missed the boat.
But if not, it means what Toyota and the US government have done is even worse than our local Premium BBM subsidi. Dosa tau !
SEMBARANGAN!

Bung Szli, subsidi atau tepatnya insentif keringanan pajak oleh pemerintah US hanya $ 330 juta, bandingkan dengan subsidi BBM Indo yang mencapai lebih dari $ 11 MILYAR!

Kedua, subsidi yang dilakukan Toyota sama sekali tidak menimbulkan kerugian bagi siapapun, terutama consumer. Ini sudah pernah kucontohkan dengan Sony yang menjual PS2-nya di bawah harga produksi pada tahun2 awal produksinya.

Ketiga, mobil hybrid semakin murah ongkos produksinya. Subsidi akan terus berkurang sampai akhirnya sama sekali tidak diperlukan lagi! Sedangkan subsidi BBM, harga minyak akan naik terus karena supply tidak dapat mengimbangi demand! Ketika harga minyak $80 atau bahkan $100 per barrel, akan berapa jadinya subsidi BBM kita?

Atas dasar apa Anda mengatakan subsidi pada mobil hybrid lebih dosa daripada subsidi BBM? Apakah karena Anda begitu menikmati premium murah itu dengan Serena Anda?

Seiring dengan waktu berjalan terus, ongkos produksi mobil hybrid akan terus turun secara eksponensial dan akhirnya akan diproduksi massal. Bahkan Ghosn pun menyadari hal ini dan karena Nissan tertinggal dan tidak memiliki teknologi hybrid mereka sendiri, Nissan membeli dari Toyota dan tahun depan mulai menjual Altima hybrid di USA.

Mari kita lihat dalam beberapa tahun mendatang, ketika model2 hybrid mulai membanjiri pasar. The buyers will be winners.
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Post by szli »

I knew U will say that.

OK, here is the counter from the old sick man :

Subsidi BBM Indonesia, meskipun rusak keuanggan negara, at least sopir angkutan umum, dan mobil murah yang di pakai orang middle class dan yang kurang mampu masih bisa ringgankan keuanggan rumah tangga mereka.

Juga siapa pun tau, jika BBM naik tajam, harga bahan pokok, dan hampir harga apa pun juga naik. Beban untuk orang ngak mampu jadi berat pula. Soalnya gaji kan susah naiknya, lebih susah dari cabut permen karet dari sepatu saya...

So BBM subsidi Indonesia sebagian masih balik ke rakyat kurang mampu in the form of controlled inflation.

Nah, the hybrids are another story. The price of hybrids kan bukan untuk orang kurang mampu beli, tapi orang keuanggan mapan. So these subsidies go to them. Orang kurang mampu yang ngak beli, atau ngak mampu beli hybrid, dapat keuntunggan apa ? Nothing kan ? Kasihan dong mereka. Does hybrids contribute to a more stable price environment for the middle and unfortunate class of people who still pays taxes every year ? No.

As for Bob Lutz saying, U forgot the 2nd part. He said he admits wrong not to enter the hybrid market, but not for yr reasons detective. Read the 2nd part carefully, justru nada dia seems sarcastic. He said its actually very good advertising value ! Not good value for consumers or country !

So what he is saying saya memang setuju. Kalau rugi demi dapat good publicity, ya OK lah ! Ghosn memang terlalu polos. Bisa gandeng uncle Sam untuk dapat PR bagus kok ngak mau ?

But I guess dia sudah ngerti apa artinya itu jadi orang miskin (saat dia pusing di Nissan tahun 1999 saat hadapi hutang milliaran dollar). So he swear never to be careless with the company's finances.

Toyota may still be using the very old Japanese tactic of entering the market at a loss first, supaya volumenya meningkat, nanti jadi untung. Possibly. Cuman its an awfully risky gamble. At least the early Japanese companies using this tactic don't burden governments. But this time its different.

For me menikmati Premium, ya sama lah ama orang beli hybrid sekarang. Loh ! uncle Sam rela bantu saya, dan Toyota lagi jual rugi demi meningkatkan volume. Dan ngak melanggar hukum. Why not ?

So if U say I am dosa for using Premium, I admit. U are Correct ! And so are the other hybrid buyers today. Sama sama dosanya.

May God have mercy on my sins, for I am only trying to get the biggest bang for my family's buck, as if jika saya miskin, the environmentalists are NOT going to help people like me.

Oh don't forget. Hybrid cars are not PlayStations. Hybrids today involve very large sums of money at stake. Well used, or misused.

And like I said earlier, PS2 like U said di jual di bawah ongkos produksi its Sony's business, tapi jangan paksa tukang bakso subsidi saya beli PS2 supaya saya bisa senang senang. Betul ?

Well, my current stance is NOW. But of course if 5-10 years later, hybrids can really be sold at a profit, both for manufacturers and WITHOUT government tax credits, I will change my mind (again whats wrong with changing my mind to get better results) and buy one myself.

Soalnya like Ghosn, I will do anything that is profitable for myself and family. Cuman if Ghosn is just an auto magazine journalist, I may not take him seriously.

But U know his big name when it comes to business acumen. If he projects that hybrids stand a very small chance of being viable commercially, yr waiting period may be far longer than U think. If that day ever come. Lets see eh !

Sebenernya saya akan senang if IU masukin one of these hybrids, so that I can test drive and see for myself. Cuman, U know it. Till today, years after hybrids are born, not a single IU have sold a hybrid here. U said ada yang nawarkan. Who ? Where, what price ? What model ? My guess again is the CIF price to Indonesia is almost Hummer like.
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Post by villanova_7th »

Wah.... HOT HOT HOT :)
Untung,.... untung cuma di Forum,
Bayangkan.... kalau pak detektif dan Sith lord rumahnya bersebelahan....... Bisa kebakaran jenggot itu pak RT sekitar. hehehe
Ada balapan liar kali tiap jam pergi dan pulang kantor hahahahaha
Luv u Guys
TOYOTAMAN: The One You Ought To Avoid, Man!
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Post by szli »

Love them or hate them. Its ObiWan Kenobi / Anakin Skywalker / Emperor Palpatine yang bikin Star Wars begitu menarik. Asal seperti mereka, just acting. No real blood shed...

Nama anda seperti kota di Carribean jaman pirates di abad 16th century. Ada satu kota namanya Villa Hermosa. Inggat kota itu lihat call ID anda.
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Post by conan »

szli wrote:Subsidi BBM Indonesia, meskipun rusak keuanggan negara, at least sopir angkutan umum, dan mobil murah yang di pakai orang middle class dan yang kurang mampu masih bisa ringgankan keuanggan rumah tangga mereka.
Juga siapa pun tau, jika BBM naik tajam, harga bahan pokok, dan hampir harga apa pun juga naik. Beban untuk orang ngak mampu jadi berat pula. Soalnya gaji kan susah naiknya, lebih susah dari cabut permen karet dari sepatu saya...
So BBM subsidi Indonesia sebagian masih balik ke rakyat kurang mampu in the form of controlled inflation.
Pemikiran yang pendek. Apa gunanya inflasi semu, hanya membohongi diri sendiri? Bung Szli, minyak bumi itu bukan cuma BBM. Contohnya, plastik itu dibuat dari minyak bumi. Semua barang yang terbuat dari plastik, harganya naik sejak harga minyak dunia naik. Bahan baku untuk biji plastik (bahan baku untuk barang plastik), masih diimpor.
Fuel costs untuk pesawat terbang dan kapal laut meroket, sampai2 FedEx melaporkan bahwa profitnya terpangkas habis dan tidak sedikit airlines yang bangkrut. Harga minyak dunia yang tinggi menyebabkan taraf hidup akan sedikit banyak menurun.

Sementara BBM masih dibakar like there is no tomorrow, tanpa usaha penghematan. Padahal kalau BBM dihemat, total konsumsi dan demand nasional/dunia akan turun, dan bisa mengimbangi supply yang tidak sebesar demand. Selain itu, akan berkembang banyak sumber tenaga alternatif seperti mobil hybrid dan pembangkit2 listrik bertenaga non-BBM. Akibatnya, harga minyak dunia akan turun, dan inflasi yang sebenarnya juga akan turun.

Ini pemikiran yang melihat jauh ke depan.
Pemikiran Anda hanya menyembunyikan kenyataan yang sesungguhnya, kenyataan yang mengerikan.

Jika harga minyak dunia melewati $ 100 per barrel (sekali lagi, bukan tidak mungkin), harga BBM tidak dinaikkan, subsidi BBM harus di atas Rp 250 Trilyun, negara ini akan bangkrut, kerusuhan dimana2, pemerintahan digulingkan rakyat, tapi setelah itu 200 juta orang rakyat yang menjadi pemerintah, juga tidak sanggup membeli minyak bumi (dan tidak ada negara yang mau jual), lalu negara ini kembali ke zaman batu.

Lebih baik menghadapi kenyataan sekarang dan mencari solusi untuk menghadapi masa depan.
szli wrote:Nah, the hybrids are another story. The price of hybrids kan bukan untuk orang kurang mampu beli, tapi orang keuanggan mapan. So these subsidies go to them. Orang kurang mampu yang ngak beli, atau ngak mampu beli hybrid, dapat keuntunggan apa ? Nothing kan ? Kasihan dong mereka. Does hybrids contribute to a more stable price environment for the middle and unfortunate class of people who still pays taxes every year ? No.
Salah sekali. Para pembeli hybrid sudah contribute pada society : dengan banyaknya orang yang membeli hybrid akan mendorong semakin banyak pabrikan mobil untuk memproduksi mobil hybrid secara massal. Pada saatnya, semua orang akan bisa membeli mobil hybrid seharga mobil biasa, karena semua mobil sudah menjadi hybrid. Semakin cepat saat itu tiba, akan semakin cepat pula masyarakat bisa melepaskan diri dari ketergantungan dari minyak bumi.

Jika tidak ada pejuang kemerdekaan, apakah sebuah negara terjajah bisa merdeka?
szli wrote:As for Bob Lutz saying, U forgot the 2nd part. He said he admits wrong not to enter the hybrid market, but not for yr reasons detective. Read the 2nd part carefully, justru nada dia seems sarcastic. He said its actually very good advertising value ! Not good value for consumers or country
Anda yang sebaiknya baca sekali lagi. Dia sama sekali tidak being sarcastic. Baca baik2, komentar terakhir dia yang berbunyi :
So even if they lose money on it, it’s cheap at twice the price.
artinya, dengan kerugian yang sedikit, hasil yang dicapai luar biasa, bahkan bisa dibilang masih murah walaupun harganya dua kali lipatnya sekalipun. Anda lihat, dimana2, di Eropa, Jepang dan USA, semua model hybrid saking larisnya, waiting list sangat panjang. Untuk Lexus RX400h, sebelum diluncurkan pun waiting list sudah sangat panjang. Ini adalah iklan yang sangat kuat, dan Toyota bahkan tidak perlu keluar uang untuk biaya iklan! Seorang pemakai hybrid akan menceritakan pada semua kawan2nya, bahkan tanpa dia bilang apa2 pun orang2 akan minta untuk mencoba mobilnya. Efek ini seperti bola salju, semakin banyak orang yang berminat membeli hybrid, sehingga setiap model hybrid baru diluncurkan, akan langsung diserbu. Anda pikir kenapa Ghosn dan Nissan sampai harus menyiapkan Altima hybrid untuk pasar USA tahun depan, bahkan sampai harus meminta sistem hybrid pada Toyota? Karena sudah adanya Accord hybrid dan Camry hybrid yang akan diluncurkan, sudah menimbulkan kehebohan dan meningkatkan brand image Honda dan Toyota. Nissan tahu, kalau tahun depan mereka belum memiliki satu pun model hybrid, pasar mereka akan hancur2an! Orang yang tidak kebagian Accord hybrid pun akan lebih memilih Accord daripada sebuah Altima. Honda dan Toyota tersenyum sangat lebar!

Anda pikir kenapa Ghosn sampai harus menyampaikan pidato tentang hybrid? Karena ia ingin sedikit menyelamatkan pangsa pasar Nissan! Kalau memang benar hybrid tidak signifikan, untuk apa ia sampai harus merespons demikian? Karena Nissan adalah satu2nya dari big trio Japan yang tidak memiliki teknologi hybrid sendiri, and everybody is questioning it!
szli wrote:Oh don't forget. Hybrid cars are not PlayStations. Hybrids today involve very large sums of money at stake.
Anda salah, bung Szli. PlayStation (and soon, PS3) adalah industri yang sangat besar, bahkan menyumbang hampir setengah dari total pendapatan Sony.
szli wrote:Well, my current stance is NOW. But of course if 5-10 years later, hybrids can really be sold at a profit, both for manufacturers and WITHOUT government tax credits, I will change my mind (again whats wrong with changing my mind to get better results) and buy one myself.
AH, aku sekarang menyadari bahwa thread ini is TOO SOON.
Aku berpandangan ke depan sementara Anda stuck di tempat, stuck at present. Seperti kasus C24 vs C25.
Kalau begitu, mari kita tutup lagi thread ini dan kita buka lagi a year from now! :)
Sebenernya saya akan senang if IU masukin one of these hybrids, so that I can test drive and see for myself. Cuman, U know it. Till today, years after hybrids are born, not a single IU have sold a hybrid here. U said ada yang nawarkan. Who ? Where, what price ? What model ? My guess again is the CIF price to Indonesia is almost Hummer like.
Toyota Prius, sudah masuk, dan Anda jangan mengada2, harga prius di USA saja jauh di bawah sebuah Hummer. Jangan selalu berlebih2an lah!
Aku akan cari dan aku minta Anda cari juga, supaya Anda bisa pergi test-drive. And get a glimpse of what the future has to offer!
[/quote]
Last edited by conan on Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:33, edited 1 time in total.
szli
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Post by szli »

Heres another interesting article. Saya pikir ngak mau comment banyak tentang opini saya. Satu percuma, tiap kali juga di serang.

Dua, satu hybrid pun ngak ada di Indo. Jadi saya ngak ada pengalaman sama sekali tentang pasar mobil ini.

Paling masuk akal, listen to what some Americans have to say, soalnya hybrid di America yang lagih heboh sekarang.

Read this from A to Z, agak panjang, tapi read it slowly, supaya ngak keselak :

http://www.hybridcars.com/blogs/blog.ph ... number=296

Ini orang nadanya lumayan kalem. Dia malah bilang, thank U Toyota for yr experiments. Cuman as a healthy analyst, he will always question, keep asking questions. Jangan Iya Boss, boss pasti betul, terus....

Artikelnya ini tanggal May 29 2005, jadi masih fresh, untuk orang yang ngak mau go online lagi :

Start of quote "

May 29, 2005: Why Won't Toyota Make More Hybrids?

Toyota is today the darling of the hybrid “cult.” Where is the healthy skepticism of the motives of corporate bosses with which environmentalists greet virtually any actions or announcements by GM, DailmerChrysler, Ford, or any American corporation? Is it that true believers can’t (or won’t) conceive of the possibility that the hybrid market leader could be motivated—Gaia forfend—to achieve aims less pure than saving the planet?

There is an element of wishful thinking in believing that hybrids would ever save enough oil to make any difference in our imports from Saudi Arabia (much less save the planet), so it is understandable to put the best public light on anything the world’s largest maker of hybrids does. I may not be privy to all that is discussed in the inner circles of the hybrid cult, so I could be mistaken in my impression that the internal is congruent with the public face. I am open to evidence that environmentalists have questioned Toyota’s motives as skeptically and vigorously as they have questioned GM’s. But, I am from Missouri. Show me.

Let me be clear about my bias. I am unapologetically skeptical of hybrid technology. Fewer than half a million hybrids have been put on the road in the world in the last half-dozen years. There are 870 million vehicles on the world’s roads today and we have more than 100 years of experience in adapting the internal combustion engine in powering our mobility on every continent and into nearly every climate, terrain, and situation we have wanted to take our cargo and ourselves. What reasonable person would not be skeptical?

This post is not intended to discredit Toyota or its hybrid program. It is laudable to experiment with new technologies, especially by putting the new technologies into real-world service. That is where we will find out what value they have. Spreadsheet simulations and purpose-built prototypes may reveal interesting possibilities, but are ultimately incapable of choosing the technology winners. Thank you, Toyota, for your hybrid experiments.

This post is directed at those who would make Toyota’s laudable and worthwhile experiments into more than they are and who would make Toyota into more than it is. Question authority. Question motives. Question experts. Question academics. Question everything. Question everyone. Question me.

Here are some examples to begin.

Question: Toyota started advertising the Prius recently. Why advertise a car when many shoppers are going to be disappointed to discover they will have to wait for delivery? The wait was the number one complaint about the new Prius in its first year, so why advertise and give more shoppers a reason to complain?

Answer: The Prius has increased showroom traffic. With supply constrained, many Prius shoppers end up buying a Corolla, Camry, or other Toyota model. Some could even end up with a Tundra Pickup that is cheaper than the Prius but gets 16 mpg in the city and 18 on the highway. The equivalent Chevrolet Silverado gets 16/21, so you had better hope the frustrated Prius buyer goes to the Chevrolet store if he decides to go with a pickup. And if you are thinking, "Prius shoppers would never consider a Tundra," I feel your pain. The contra-positive is "Tundra shoppers would never consider a Prius," or, to generalize, "PICKUP shoppers would never consider SMALL CARS." Welcome to my world. People have different needs and wants they are trying to satisfy when they buy vehicles. And not everyone who shops at Toyota, not even everyone who visits the store because of the ads for the Prius, shares your values. Watch out when the Highlander is in the showroom drawing in SUV shoppers. They might just buy a 15 city/18 hwy Sequoia. Pray that they don’t but the 13/17 Land Cruiser. I leave it as an exercise for the reader to find the GM, Ford, and Chrysler equivalents with higher MPG that should make environmentalists wish they had never elevated Toyota to infallibility.

Question: If hybrids were not a good idea then why would the world’s most profitable automobile producer want to be the hybrid leader? Profit is a clear sign that they are smarter than the other companies, so anything they do has to be smart, doesn’t it?

Answer: By selling hybrids, Toyota is given a pass by environmentalists to reduce the fuel economy of their new vehicle fleet relative to GM, Ford, and DaimlerChrysler without protest. I posted data comparing Toyota and GM last week. Have the environmentalists become apologists for Toyota, overlooking their move into gas-hungry SUVs and pickups? Toyota sold twice as many Tundras as Priuses in 2004 and has been building pickups in America for years. Toyota will build hybrid Camrys in Kentucky soon, and some environmentalist should find out whether American taxpayers are being asked to subsidize investment by the world’s most profitable automobile producer to do what is supposed to be a smart thing. Are there grounds for concluding that environmentalists are acting toward Toyota like the mainstream media act toward the Democrat party?

Question: GM’s Bob Lutz was criticized for implying that the hybrid program was mostly a Toyota public relations success. Does Lutz just not get it or what?

Answer: Hybrids have given Toyota a government relations boost in DC and California. The AP story that earned me my first hate e-mail for the quote, "Most people don't think about where their vehicles are made," was about concerns that Toyota (and Honda) expressed that the declining fortunes of Detroit automakers could inspire anti-Japanese feelings in the U.S. The hybrid program certainly is seen in DC as a “good thing,” and has let Toyota and Honda position themselves as good corporate citizens to lawmakers. For a few years now, our government has been taxing displaced auto industry workers in Detroit and sending the money to Toyota and Honda in the form of consumer incentives to buy hybrids. How much better can their image get than that? About the only people who don’t think they are heroes are the anti-government loonies. If Congress renews the Patriot Act, then the loonies will become even more marginalized (or incarcerated).

Toyota’s image in California would also be hard to improve upon. The company’s North American headquarters are in the Los Angeles area, and Californians buy a lot of Toyotas. Toyota’s market share (including Lexus) was 19.5% in California in 2004, but only 12.2% for the U.S. overall. GM hung onto first place (20.4%) in California in 2004, but next year look for Toyota to be first in sales in California. Californians and their state government are either crazy over green or advanced environmental thinkers, depending on your bias. It makes sense that most hybrids are bought by Californian, and that a “home-state” manufacturer would benefit most from giving Californians what they want.

Question: Toyota says that the Prius is profitable. What is wrong with GM and DaimlerChrysler? Don’t they want to make profits? And why doesn’t Ford make more Escape Hybrids? Don’t they want to make profits, either?

Answer: One wishes in vain that intelligent people would be more skeptical of unverifiable claims regarding costs and profits in the post-Enron, post-Global Crossing, post-Sarbanes Oxley world. Turn the questions on Toyota: What is wrong with Toyota? Why don’t they make more hybrids than they do? Don’t they want to make profits? Why are they so slow to add capacity to build hybrids?

If you believe that hybrids are the future of the automotive industry and that Toyota makes a profit on the Prius, then what is your explanation of their strange behavior? You believe that Toyota has the silver bullet, the Holy Grail, the killer app...

…Yet, they say they are going to build only 48,000 hybrid Camrys per year while also building more than 350,000 conventional gas-only Camrys and other cars per year in their Kentucky plant. Why not 100,000 hybrids? Why not 200,000? Why not 400,000?

…Yet, they have announced that want to sell their hybrid technology to other automakers. Why sell your competition a technology that could give you an insurmountable lead over them?

You tell me. " end of quote.
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Post by observer »

I quote from today's Asian Wall Street Journal

TOYOTA'S WATANABE BETS NEW HYBRIDS WILL WIN GREEN CUSTOMERS

.......Hybrids, however, are a gamble for the Japanese car maker. These cars come with a huge battery that stores electricity generated when the driver puts on the brake, energy that is later used to help propel the car, thus reducing emissions and saving gasoline. But hybrids are expensive. Mr. Watanabe concedes that the better gas mileage doesn't provide enough savings, over the life of a car, for consumers to earn back the extra cost. Gas, though expensive these days, just isn't expensive enough for hybrids to make sense economically.

Mr. Watanabe said Toyota, through its storied manufacturing system of kaizen, or continuous improvement, can reduce by half the $4,000 to $5,000 cost to consumers per car of hybrid technology. Analysts aren't so sure, noting that batteries use metals that are rare, and prices of these materials could increase along with demand for hybrids, making cost reductions difficult. Moreover, any success in lowering prices will either take years or what Mr. Watanabe concedes would be a technological breakthrough. "But it can be done," Mr. Watanabe said.

Even before those cost reductions, though, Toyota is betting it can sell this new technology by appealing to the affluent with environmental concerns, but who don't want to sacrifice power or comfort. A crucial test case for Toyota is the recent release in the U.S. of a sport-utility-vehicle called the RX400h, sold under Toyota's Lexus nameplate, the best selling luxury brand in the U.S. The hybrid version of this SUV comes with a six-cylinder engine, or a V6, that Toyota says gets 31 miles per gallon in the city. The vehicle gets a considerable boost from its electric propulsion system.

The message: You can have your green ride and have your power too. It is too soon to say if this approach will gain long-term traction, but the early sales numbers suggest customers are nibbling. "Hybrids are a little expensive," said Mr. Watanabe. "But the technology is in its second generation, and people are now buying them for both the environment and the ride."

Some Toyota executives have been comparing the RX 400h strategy to the earlier success of Volvo. The Swedish carmaker, now owned by Ford, has marketed itself successfully for years as a safe vehicle, a message that resonated with urban and suburban professionals willing to pay a premium to protect children in the back seat. Toyota is targeting the same demographic.

Dealers are now stressing that the RX 400h, while getting the gas mileage of a Camry sedan, has the feel of an eight-cylinder engine, even though it only has a V6. When other luxury-car makers include a more-powerful engine, they charge a hefty markup. An eight-cylinder version of the BMW X5 sport utility from BMW AG, for example, costs more than $10,000 more than the six-cylinder version, according to prices on Edmunds.com, a Web site where consumers compare prices.

Toyota is using a similar logic for its hybrids. It is also charging a premium for the extra ppwer in its RX 400h, the difference being that the extra power comes from electricity instead of two more gas-burning cylinders. The Lexus RX 400h is the same model as the RX330, except that the former is a hybrid and lists for $48,000 - $11,000 more than the RX330. Toyota doesn't say how much more a hybrid costs to develop than a conventional engine. But at most, it costs $6,000 more, say industry analysts. That $5,000 difference is profit.

Chris RIchter, a veteran car-industry analyst with brokerage CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, said the U.S. consumer, on average, won't pay a premium for fuel economy alone. But "they will pay for horsepower," he said.

Some say there is a cynical calculus to this environmental push as well. U.S. regulators fine car makers that don't meet certain emission standards, which are measured as an average across the lineup of cars a maker sells. By selling more hybrids with good fuel efficiency, Toyota can sell more gus-guzzling mdoels as well.

Toyota has coveted particularly the market for pickups for years - and will soon be attacking in force when its big Tundra pickup trucks, leviathans that will compete with Chevy and Ford pickups, start coming off the line in 2006 from a plant under construction in San Antonio.

Senior Toyota executives say the industry is still vulnerable to environmental activists and the political instability of oil-producing regions. Top company officials believe the industry hasn't done enough to respond to these challenges and hybrids, they say, act as a big hedge and would force rivals to keep pace.....
conan
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Post by conan »

Why Won't Toyota Make More Hybrids? Why not 100,000 hybrids? Why not 200,000? Why not 400,000?
Because they don't have the capacity. The current plants are already working at full capacity and they barely keep up with demand.
Toyota is building a new plant in the U.S. to produce even more hybrids.

And from the article posted by Mr. Observer :
An eight-cylinder version of the BMW X5 sport utility from BMW AG, for example, costs more than $10,000 more than the six-cylinder version, according to prices on Edmunds.com, a Web site where consumers compare prices.
Toyota is using a similar logic for its hybrids. It is also charging a premium for the extra ppwer in its RX 400h, the difference being that the extra power comes from electricity instead of two more gas-burning cylinders. The Lexus RX 400h is the same model as the RX330, except that the former is a hybrid and lists for $48,000 - $11,000 more than the RX330. Toyota doesn't say how much more a hybrid costs to develop than a conventional engine. But at most, it costs $6,000 more, say industry analysts. That $5,000 difference is profit.
Biaya untuk membuat sebuah mesin V8 BMW lebih mahal $10,000 daripada mesin inline 6-nya. Sebagian profit, tentu saja.
Lexus RX400h lebih mahal $11,000 daripada RX330, $5,000 mungkin berupa profit.
Tapi, Lexus RX400h memiliki keunggulan significant daripada sebuah BMW X5 V8, yaitu fuel consumption-nya yang setara sebuah Camry.

Jika Anda disuruh beli satu, yang mana yang akan Anda pilih? BMW X5 V8 atau Lexus RX400h?

Logika yang sama akan juga terjadi pada mobil 4 silinder yang menggunakan hybrid. Horsepowernya akan setara mobil V6, tapi iritnya seperti mobil 4-silinder biasa atau bahkan kurang (semakin ringan mobil, semakin banyak bisa dijalankan dengan motor listrik saja).

Jadi, apakah hybrid mahal? I don't think so.

Thanks for the article, Mr. Observer. :)
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Post by szli »

Thanks Mr. Obs. for yr good article from very good sources. Better than listening to my biased opinion. Once again, the American analysts knows more abt pros and cons of hybrids than people like me living in Indonesia, yang sama sekali ngak pernah pakai hybrid.

Don't forget to read my attached article before yours. Its a good one.
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Post by szli »

Really, if someone is that tulus to save the planets oil, he should immediately stop selling large numbers of those gas guzzling Tundras, Land Cruisers, Sequias. U have tens of billions in cash. U can easily convert yr huge plant capacity to build hundereds of thousands of hybrids in a short time.

With tens of billions of dollars in reserve and many factories, mana mungkin tidak bisa ? Kan Toyota bukan Mitsubishi sekarang, lagi kurang sana.

Remember, from my long memory, corporate bosses itu JARANG JARANG sekali begitu IDEALISTIC. Mau save the planet, oil etc.

I remember I asked my relative who works for GE. Ask just a simple conversation, I ask, Gee, Whats Jack Welch's religion ? He said, I tell U, for most corporate bosses of mega companies, they utmost motive, religion is MONEY, more money to increase their share price, to increase their pay checks / bonuses. Nothing more.

I tell U where most of the really idealistic people can be found. In NGOs and organizations like Greenpeace, Amnesty International, WWF etc. These people know they cannot hope to be rich by being activist. Yet they believe enough to join and work full time there.

CEO of Toyota, CEO of GM / Chrysler etc. Do U really think they are THAT concerned ?

If yes, hentikan produksi truck truck lu yang gila banget konsumsi BBMnya. NOW ! Malah they are expanding these truck capacities !

But it sure tells me that these big CEOs memang benar pintar sekali. Bisa pakai macam cara untuk bisa mencapai tujuan, meskipun dengan sedikit PR touchup. No wonder they can be big bosses, ngak seperti saya.