All About HYBRIDS

[szli]

Dedicated to all SMers, especially Mr. Conan :

Quoted from Shift by Carlos Ghosn, chapter 19, page 192 :

" For example, Nissan has adopted an approach very different from Toyota's and Honda's with regard to hybrid vehicles - vehicles that combine an internal combustion engine with electric propulsion. We think this technology is very promising, but it's not yet mature. Why ? Because it's too expensive. All the hybrids sold in Japan today are subsidized by the government, and they still lose money. No one comes out ahead - not the customer, not the taxpayer, not the manufacturer.

There are other possibilities for developing technologies that are much more favourableto the environment. We've made the commitment : 90% of the vehicles we put on the market are classified as " Ultra-low emission vehicles " (U-LEVs); that is, their emissions are 75% or more below Japan's 2000 exhaust - emission regulations. By the end of fiscal year 2005, over 80% of our passenger car sales will be Super ultra-low emission vehicles, with exhaust levels 50% lower than U-LEV standards.

U-LEVs have an immediate, positive effect on efforts to clean up the environment. And it's a technology that won't raise the price of an individual vehicle at all. The consumer doesn't have to pay for it. And, finally, it's a technology that allows the manufacturer to make a profit. Since 80% of our production conforms to this standard, we are producing large-scale results, while the number of hybrids sold today is still very marginal.

Such pragmatism has not always gotten good press, especially in Japan. In Japan, the public tends to believe that a Japanese company worthy of the name must establish itself as a leader in technology, cost what it may. Critics have reproached the company for sacrificing our future by neglecting to make a sufficient investment in R&D (Mr. Conan, just like what U think). I can't deny that Nissan reduced its R&D expenditures prior to 1999. Budgets were cut and necessary investments were limited to a strict minimum. But that was understandable. Nissan's debt was approaching 2.1 trillion yen, and the company wasn't making a profit.

But since the NRP, we increased the no. of our engineering personnel by several thousand people. We improved productivity. We announced significant investments in technology and product development. We redressed the imbalance. I'm not addicted to technology for technology's sake. but I accept it. I've been criticized for not believing in hybrid cars - people say I may miss the boat (Like U again Mr. Conan).

Very well. Watch and see what happens in the next few years. Some choices are going to be necessary. If U try to develop the hybrid all at once, you're going to find yourself at a disadvantage financially with respect to yr principal competitors, and you always wind up paying for that.

We place a lot of emphasis on improving profitability. Again, in 2003, Nissan, a company that had been moribund 4 years previously, became one of the most profitable automotive manufacturers in the World. Its operating margin was superior to that of its rival, Toyota. That doesn't mean we're neglecting Nissan's future - not at all. We're taking some chances, but we refuse to put technologies on the market that have little or no prospect of becoming profitable. That's a waste of time and preciousresources.

We still have a lot of room for progress in traditional automobile technology. I don't at all believe that game's been played out. I don't make judgments based on a technology alone, but on the ratio between the revenue it's likely to produce and its probable cost.

Some technologies will never see the light of day solely because it will turn out to be impossible to present them at a price acceptable to customers. That's why it's impossible to decide categorically between internal combustion engines, diesels, hybrids, electric engines, and portable fuel cells. We're developing a hybrid engine, but we're not limiting ourselves to that.

We're working on fuel cells. We're continuing to work on traditional engines and diesels. We're in a business where we can't charge the prices we want. These days, the customer's ability to accept new technologies that come with a high surcharge is very limited. In the case of hybrids, it's the taxpayer who foots a part of the bill. Such a state of affairs won't last forever.

Nevertheless, there can be no arguing the fact that hybrid technology, like the technology of fuel cells apllied to automobiles, has made considerable progress. These type of vehicles now travel at decent speeds and have a respectable range. But for the technology to gain acceptance in the market, it has to be widely diffused. From antilock brakes to airbags, every innovation has become common in a few years; big equipment manufacturershave to make the economies of scale work in their favour. In other words, pioneers of new technologies don't necessary gain a significant advantage.

The manufacturers who have committed themselves to the development of hybrid cars are doing the bulk of the work. To lower costs, they'll have to standardize, realize economies of scale. It's impossible for a single carmaker to create its own technology and present it to the market at a bargain price. The most complicated problems have to do with components and engine parts, but those are made outside the company. If people want to lower costs, suppliers will have to work for several automakers.

In 2002, Toyota and Nissan announced an accord that perfectly illustrates our reasoning. Toyota agreed, beginning in 2006, to supply us with the componentsto allow Nissan to market 100,000 hybrid cars in the US, where the antipollution laws are the most stringent. The accord, which also extends to Renault, allows Toyota to share development costs; at the same time, Toyota's own technology standard gains an advantage in its competition with Honda. The result is the kind of win-win situation that I love. "

Time will tell if Ghosn made a wrong calculation. But I can't help but remember the story of Fusion. Its a wonderful energy creating process, but the costs are still prohibitive, so no ones using this yet. Something like that.

[conan]

Too late ? Belum tentu deh. Look at Ford. They are the first to mass produce the Automobile.

Fast forward today, hows Ford banding the big 3 Japs ?

Ford was late in implementing the Japanese (especially Toyota's) highly efficient production methods (Just In Time, Kaizen etc), just like GM was. By the time they realized it, Japanese cars were already more reliable and more affordable. Too little, too late.

The first may not be the strongest for a long time.

But it also may. The first of its kind, Star Wars was. The biggest of its kind, Star Wars is.

Nanti ATPM lain seperti Nissan, saat uangnya dan pasar sudah matang, bisa dong beli berapa hybrid Toyota cars, dismantle them and make a good study of them.

So much for Nissan being the 'technical leader' :

Di bagian commentar situ, mereka bilang, kalau Toyota itu jago jualan mobil, artinya dealernya success besar jual banyak mobil, Nissan is the " Technical Leader ".

Time will tell if Ghosn made a wrong calculation. But I can't help but remember the story of Fusion. Its a wonderful energy creating process, but the costs are still prohibitive, so no ones using this yet. Something like that.

I'm a big fan of Ghosn, but he is still human. Human makes mistakes.
And Nissan's late entry into hybrid technology R&D is not Ghosn's fault, it's more of Nissan's fault of putting themselves so deep in red that Ghosn had to work so hard to recover it first, before seeing to anything else.

In 2002, Toyota and Nissan announced an accord that perfectly illustrates our reasoning. Toyota agreed, beginning in 2006, to supply us with the componentsto allow Nissan to market 100,000 hybrid cars in the US, where the antipollution laws are the most stringent. The accord, which also extends to Renault, allows Toyota to share development costs; at the same time, Toyota's own technology standard gains an advantage in its competition with Honda. The result is the kind of win-win situation that I love. "

What did I say :

Oh well, they could always have it licensed from Toyota or Honda.

And in future car fuels technology, hybrid to fuel cell is like VHS to Betamax, VCD to Laser Disc, WiFi to 3G. All the latters are technologically superior but bombed, because they were not market-friendly.

Satu hambatan terbesar fuel cell-powered cars, misalnya dibanding hybrids : dibutuhkan infrastruktur distribusi dan stasiun2 pengisian kembali hydrogen fuel cell tanks sebanyak SPBU2 bensin dan solar yang ada sekarang. Hal ini tentu berlaku di semua negara, dari Tokyo sampai Purwakarta di Jawa Barat, misalnya.
Jangankan di Indonesia, di negara maju pun membutuhkan investasi luar biasa besar dan waktu yang lama untuk menyiapkan jaringan stasiun2 pengisian tersebut. Di Jepang, negara termaju secara teknologi pun, paling mungkin baru dimulai di kota2 terbesarnya seperti Tokyo dan Osaka. Kota2 kecil di ujung Jepang? Not likely.
Apalagi Amerika dan Eropa yang begitu besar. Dan bagaimana dengan Purwakarta, Pangandaran, Pekalongan (all started with P kekeke), misalnya?
Jangankan stasiun pengisian hydrogen pada fuel-cell battery, SPBU yang ada pun tidak terawat dengan baik.

This is the biggest advantage of hybrid cars. Mobil hybrid menggunakan kombinasi motor bensin/diesel dan motor listrik. Untuk motor listrik, bahkan tidak perlu di-recharge seperti mobil listrik, karena akan me-recharge batterynya sendiri setiap kali kita menginjak rem (regenerative braking). Dan mobil hybrid tetap menggunakan BBM dan bisa mengisinya di SPBU terkuno di daerah seterpencil apapun, selama ada bensin.

Ambil contoh model hybrid terbaru di Jepang yaitu Toyota Camry dan Toyota Harrier hybrid (Lexus RX400h). Begitu dibeli di Jakarta bisa langsung dipakai ke seluruh pelosok Jawa. Ke manapun selama ada SPBU. Dan bahkan, jika persediaan bensin sudah menipis dan kita berada di daerah sangat terpencil dan tidak menemukan satupun SPBU, kalau dengan Harrier biasa kita akan segera kehabisan bensin dan terdampar, tapi dengan Harrier hybrid, bisa tetap menjelajah menggunakan 'Battery mode' dan tidak menggunakan bensin sedikitpun!

Karena itulah mobil2 hybrid Toyota dan Honda sangat laris dimana2. Bahkan Porsche juga akan membeli mesin hybrid Toyota untuk dipasang di Cayenne hybrid!

Until fuel cell technology and its hydrogen-refilling stations becomes as common as internal combustion engines and fuel-refilling stations (several decades from now), hybrid technology is the way to go. The Japanese at Toyota and Honda are not just dreamers, they give us the best solution for TODAY while they also keep developing future technologies beyond hybrid.

Ketika fuel-cell atau apapun teknologi masa depan setelah era hybrid ini sudah siap untuk dipasarkan, yakinlah bahwa Toyota dan Honda akan juga sudah berada di barisan paling depan! Dan mungkin Nissan juga, atau mungkin mereka lebih menyukai cara yang lebih praktis : membayar license saja pada Toyota.

I'm a Nissan fan, and a Ghosn fan, but give me realism over loyalism any day!

[szli]

Here is my interpretation of Ghosn's short term thinking :

Misalnya di Indo, dari pada Toyota jual Prius yang salesnya per bulan ngak terlalu besar, mending mesin Innova yang terjual 6000 per bulan di ganti yang U-LEV.

Impact di udara Jakarta dari Innova yang sudah U-LEV jauh lebih drastis dari pada jual Prius say 100 per bulan, tapi tetap banyak gas buang Innova yang belum optimal...

No matter what, a small group of hybrids on the road is no match for the farts of the other majority cars whose emissions are still not very low.

I think hybrids are not that simple, if yes, kan TAM tinggal jual mobil hybrid, say Prius, di jamin laku, soalnya orang INDO kan banyak yang cari mobil super irit.

[szli]

More on this issue...

Ghosn rubbishes hybrids - 'they make no sense'
[ See related stories ]

January 30, 2005

New Orleans - The head of Nissan, Carlos Ghosn, has broken ranks with some of his leading rivals by saying fuel-sipping hybrid vehicles – such as the Toyota Prius just launched in South Africa - make little sense because of their high costs.

"They make a nice story, but they're not a good business story yet because the value is lower than their costs," the Nissan chief executive said on Saturday.

However, Nissan would start assembling a gas-electric hybrid version of its Altima sedan for the US market in 2006 but only, Ghosn said, because it was intended to help the company comply with strict fuel economy and emissions standards in states such as California
Nissan would start assembling a gas-electric hybrid version of its Altima sedan for the US market in 2006 but only...
.

It would not make money.

Nissan will license some technology for the Altima from Toyota, world leader in hybrid production, along with Honda.

The hybrids made by Toyota and Honda are in high demand but production levels are still relatively small.
Toyota plans to nearly double production of its Prius for the US market this year with production rising to about 100 000 units.

Ford is alone among US automakers in producing mass-market hybrids. The company recently announced plans to introduce four new models by 2008.

Ghosn's comments, which are likely to draw criticism from environmental groups, were made in an address to the National Automobile Dealers' Association's annual convention that opened in New Orleans on Saturday
...because it was intended to help the company comply with strict fuel economy and emissions standards in states such as California
.

In his speech, he noted that only about 88 000 of the 16.9-million light vehicles sold in the US last year were hybrids. They were, he added, still considered as "niche" products, something way outside the automotive mainstream.

He also poured cold water on hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles that are seen by many automakers as the industry's next big technological breakthrough.

"The cost to build one fuel-cell car is about $800 000. Do the math and you'll see we'll have to reduce the cost of that car by more than 95 percent to get widespread market acceptance," Ghosn said.

Ghosn, who is credited with a dramatic turnaround at Nissan, is poised to take over as chief executive at Renault in May. His future role, simultaneously running operations at two major automakers, is thought to be an industry first.

Nissan, 44 percent owned by Renault, scored the biggest sales jump of any major automaker in the US in 2004 - a 24 percent surge to 986 000 vehicles. - Reuters

[Herry]

Bung Szli, yakinlah hybrid tidak lama akan membanjiri pasaran di Asia termasuk di Indonesia, dan itu dimulai dari Thailand th 2005 dan Malaysia mulai th 2006.
Perkiraan gue sih, hybrid masuk Indo paling cepat 2006, atau maybe 2007, tapi pasti masuk dlm bbrp th lagi.

[conan]

Here is my interpretation of Ghosn's short term thinking :

Misalnya di Indo, dari pada Toyota jual Prius yang salesnya per bulan ngak terlalu besar, mending mesin Innova yang terjual 6000 per bulan di ganti yang U-LEV.

And hence, underline the words : Ghosn's short term thinking !

No matter what, a small group of hybrids on the road is no match for the farts of the other majority cars whose emissions are still not very low.

Oh? Bung Szli, Anda pikir cuma Nissan yang bisa, atau banyak, membuat mobil2 U-LEV? Jangan termakan claim tersebut. Semua produsen juga membuat mesin2 dengan tingkat emisi yang paling rendah untuk memenuhi standar internasional. Dan mobil hybrid yang sedang berjalan dengan hanya menjalankan motor listriknya, tingkat emisinya = nol! Model2 U-LEV mau serendah apapun emisinya, tetap tidak bisa serendah mobil hybrid yang juga menggunakan mesin bensin kategori U-LEV! Betul kan?

Dan mobil hybrid itu bukan hanya Prius, you know. Prius adalah test model yang terbukti successful. I'm talking about Toyota Herry err maaf bung Herry, maksudku Toyota Harrier hybrid , Toyota Kluger hybrid, Toyota Camry hybrid, Lexus LS hybrid etc etc.
Dalam hitungan tahun, beberapa tahun lagi saja Toyota akan memiliki versi hybrid untuk semua lineupnya. Honda pun tidak ketinggalan, dengan Civic IMA (Integrated Motor Assist - Honda's name for hybrid), Accord hybrid, and the upcoming new Insights etc.

My point is, Anda jangan menganggap hybrid itu berarti hanya model seperti Prius dan Insight. Accord, Civic dan Camry pun sudah ada versi hybridnya.

Hybrid bukan adalah substitusi tapi merupakan komplementer untuk mobil biasa (internal combustion engine). Dengan menambahkan motor listrik pada keempat roda, jika dijalankan bersamaan dengan mesin bensin/dieselnya, akan menghasilkan tenaga yang jauh lebih besar. Dengan begitu, bisa menggunakan mesin bensin yang lebih kecil untuk model yang biasanya membutuhkan tenaga besar. Contoh terbaik adalah Lexus 400h. Disebut 400h karena memiliki tenaga 200 kW atau setara mesin 4.0L V8, padahal mesin bensinnya hanya 3.3L V6! Dan fuel consumptionnya? Pernahkah Anda mendengar figure 8.1 litres/100 Km, atau sekitar 12.5 Km/liter bensin, untuk sebuah SUV bertenaga 4.0L V8??
Bahkan jauh lebih irit daripada Harrier 2.4L yang 4-cylinder!

Dan angka ini didapat dari pengetesan di luar negri dimana trafficnya tidak separah Jakarta, sehingga angka ini didapat dari keadaan mesin bensin pada RX400h ini selalu aktif. Tapi pada mobil hybrid, justru semakin banyak kondisi macet total yang stop-and-go, akan semakin irit fuel consumption-nya! Bahkan, untuk Civic IMA dan Insight dari Honda, jika pada traffic you come to a stop, keadaan berhenti, misalnya di lampu merah, mesinnya akan mati sendiri secara otomatis, dan dalam sepersekian detik, akan menyala kembali ketika kita menginjak kembali pedal gas! Anda tidak akan merasa mesinnya pernah mati! Apakah ini bukan cara menghemat bahan bakar yang sangat effective dan done very smartly?

Hybrid adalah evolusi dari mesin internal combustion biasa, dan hanya menambahkan beberapa motor listrik untuk menggerakkan roda2nya.
Anda tentu familar dengan teknologi VTEC, VVTi dan sebagainya. Mengatur bukaan katup secara variabel untuk menghemat BBM.
Evolusi selanjutnya dari teknologi ini adalah mengatur silinder yang aktif. Contoh VCM (Variable Cylinder Management) dari Honda, yang diterapkan pada new Legend. Legend bermesin V6 tapi pada kecepatan rendah, hanya 3 silinder yang aktif, seperti bermesin hanya 3 silinder! Irit bahan bakar.
Evolusi lebih jauh lagi adalah hybrid technology, yaitu menambahkan motor2 listrik kecil yang bisa me-recharge ulang dirinya sendiri, untuk membantu menggerakkan roda (=menambah tenaga).
Anda bayangkan, jika ada mobil Honda yang sudah bermesin i-VTEC, menggunakan VCM, juga menggunakan hybrid? Akan luar biasa irit!
Pada kecepatan rendah tidak membakar bensin sedikitpun karena hanya motor listrik yang aktif!
Pada kecepatan sedang, motor listrik mati dengan sendirinya dan mesin bensin V6 hidup, tapi hanya menggunakan 3 silinder!
Pada kecepatan tinggi 6 silinder aktif, dan semua motor listrik juga hidup, dan gabungan tenaga yang dihasilkan menyaingi mesin V8!
Overall semua kondisi di atas, konsumsi BBM mobil ini mungkin lebih irit daripada mobil 4 silinder!

Dan jika suatu hari motor2 listrik kecil ini bisa menghasilkan tenaga 10 kali dari model sekarang, bukan tidak mungkin akan tercipta mobil 100% listrik yang tidak membutuhkan mesin bensin sama sekali! Dan emisinya juga nol.
No more need for hydrogen-powered, fuel-cell equipped cars yang lebih mahal!

I think hybrids are not that simple, if yes, kan TAM tinggal jual mobil hybrid, say Prius, di jamin laku, soalnya orang INDO kan banyak yang cari mobil super irit.

Kata2 Anda tidak masuk akal dan hanya menyederhanakan masalah.

Pertama, Anda sendiri yang selalu bilang kalau di Indo baru bisa laku keras kalau menjual mobil di bawah 200 jutaan. Orang Indo bukan cuma cari model yang super irit, tapi juga super murah!
Dan Toyota tentu akan membuat Harrier dan Camry hybrid dulu untuk pasar dunia daripada membuat Innova dan Avanza hybrid hanya untuk pasar Indonesia. Innova dan Avanza don't even have airbags, for crying out loud!

Kedua, TAM terkenal lebih suka milking our cash dengan model murah meriah seperti Kapsul, Avanza dan Innova. Bahkan Fortuner saja tidak dirakit di Indonesia, dan Harrier yang laris saja mereka tidak memasukkan? Anda sungguh2 berharap mereka memasukkan Prius?

Last but definitely not least, kapasitas pabrik Toyota dan Honda yang memproduksi motor2 listrik ini masih terbatas (tapi terus ditambah), sementara demand akan model2 hybrid sangat luar biasa! Anda tanya saja, berapa panjang inden untuk Prius dan Lexus RX400h di Amerika!


About Carlos, aku sudah pernah baca kata2 Ghosn ini dan aku sangat kecewa. Denial = too stubbord to admit it. Kalau dia memang tidak percaya hybrid, mengapa bother membuat deal dengan Toyota?? Dan jika dalam beberapa tahun ke depan Toyota dan Honda memiliki versi hybrid untuk hampir semua model2 mereka, bagaimana dengan Nissan?

Bung Szli, aku ingin memperjelas dulu, apa yang Anda ingin perdebatkan denganku di thread ini.
Apakah whether hybrid is the way to go or not?
Atau whether Nissan/Ghosn's decision not to do develop hybrid technology is the right call or not.

Karena Anda lihat saja, Nissan juga akan menjual versi hybrid untuk model2 mereka, walaupun harus membeli mesinnya dari saingan terbesar mereka, Toyota. Dan kalau begitu, berarti Nissan pun mengakui hybrid is the way to go! Bayangkan jika nanti semua Lexus RX sudah RX400h semua, Murano tidak akan laku lagi.

Masalahnya, Nissan kan terkenal sebagai 'technical leader'.
Tapi untuk hybrid, sementara Toyota dan Honda memiliki teknologinya masing2, Nissan tidak punya. Why? Because they're too little, too late.

Jadi nanti di mobil hybrid Nissan, ketika kita membuka kap mesinnya, 'Powered by Toyota/Honda electric motors'.

Whether Ghosn and Nissan are jumping the bandwagon or not, hybrid (hybrid petrol and hybrid diesel) is the way to go.
Just ask Toyota, Honda, and Ford. Soon, Porsche and just about everybody else.

Carlos can wake up now but the coffee's gone cold already. Toyota and Honda are now so advanced in their respective hybrid technology, the whole world is watching them.

[conan]

Potent Lexus SUV goes green

07/06/2005 08:55
Toyota's luxury car division Lexus has launched one of the most extraordinary SUVs. It is the world's first premium SUV to feature a hybrid power system, which boasts high performance too!

The Lexus RX 400h has a unique position in the market by not only delivering low exhaust emissions and high fuel efficiency, but also by providing some potent power too.

This new Lexus is the first off-roader to combine petrol and electric motors and essentially similar to the approach of the Toyota Prius.

The RX 400h has a 3.3-litre V6 petrol, plus two battery-powered electric motors. These give a combined power output of 200 kW, which is similar to a 4.0 litre petrol (hence the 400 moniker).

On its own the petrol unit kicks out 155 kW and torque is 288 Nm at 4 400 r/min.

Combined fuel consumption is 8.1-litres/100km, which is an impressive figure for such a vehicle. The RX 400h also sprints from 0-100 km/h in 7.6 seconds.

[conan]

'Green' people-carriers

Independent importers are claimed to be enjoying decent sales of the Toyota Estima and Alphard MPVs powered by hybrid powertrains. Should these two be available officially through Toyota Motor Thailand? We think so.

By RICHARD LEU

Despite heavier body, the Alphard still performs well. The Estima uses the same powertrain as the Alphard's and works well due to a lighter body.

Interior is very comfortable, thanks to large, cushy seats. Cabin takes six persons in comfort.

The Alphard Hybrid is priced at 3.59 million baht. Estima Hybrid costs 3.49 million baht.

Transmission console a little protruding to the driver's left leg, but is ergonomically sound to use. The Estima has an airier feel when taking the wheel.

The "grey" market is sometimes a useful gauge for car manufacturers, in which demand for a specific kind of vehicle or model can be assessed before making official sales.

Take Lexus, for example. Before the Japanese luxury make took the Thai market seriously, independent importers enjoyed considerable sales success of the Toyota Harrier (Lexus RX300) and Land Cruiser Cygnus (Lexus LX470).

Now that Lexus is selling these two models with more heart, the grey marketers are turning to Toyota's hybrid-powered vehicles which are still mostly confined to the Japanese market.

The SEC Group, a renown independent importer, has started imports of the Estima and Alphard late last year and has claimed to deliver some 100 units already.

If they are to be believed, then Toyota Motor Thailand should have a good reason to sell these two people-carriers on an official basis.

Of course, the sticking point would be specifications and homologation, since the Alphard and Estima haven't been earmarked for Asian markets, including those in Europe.

As reported in the sidebar, Lexus has a plan of importing the RX400h into Thailand. The SUV comes with a 3.3-litre V6 engine coupled with an electric motor.

But the attractive 10% excise rate applied on vehicles with hybrid powertrains has an odd rule: the displacement of the internal combustion engine can't exceed 3,000cc.

With that in mind, the Estima and Alphard hybrid models are worth considering from a pure product point of view. Both MPVs come with a base 2.4-litre petrol engine attached to wattage developers.

In fact, hybrid powertrains have a good reason to be fitted into MPVs. The inherent compromise _ less favourable weight distribution due to all the drivetrain components _ is unlikely to be a key factor in reducing the car's desirability.

In other words, would an owner of an Estima or Alphard really be concerned about handling balance when the cars are thrashed into corners?

This easily explains why the Estima and Alphard have extra-soft suspension settings. Courtesy of the SEC Group, we drove both MPVs and found out how well they worked on Thai roads. Even the nastiest road imperfection in Bangkok is unlikely to make any occupant moan.

Given that the Alphard and Estima are targeted at urban-dwellers who are either chauffeur-driven or don't give a hoot about how much feedback the steering wheel in front of them would yield, such a chassis set-up seems appropriate.

For those thinking otherwise, the Alphard and Estima won't suffice. The steering is dreadfully vague and slow and makes up for soggy and unresponsive handling. Don't try picturing these two cars performing slalom tests.

Despite the nimble chassis, stability in a straight line isn't a problem. Actually, it's comfortable anywhere that isn't in far reach of legal speed limits.

But what really impresses is performance of the powertrains. Don't think that such hybrid systems yield lethargic acceleration. In fact, sprinting abilities are quite commendable just like in the Prius model we once tested on local roads, courtesy of another independent importer by the name of Auto Image.

Both the Estima and Alphard come with 131hp, 190Nm 2.4-litre inline-four engines with additional 18hp and 25hp electric motors at the front and rear respectively.

Both cars offer useful shove anywhere under 140kph. They are also generally quiet on the move, with the smooth-shifting CVT transmissions being only vocal when pushed hard.

According to claims in Japan, both the Estima and Alphard hybrids yield around 18kpl. That's quite believable, because during our venture with the cars on a trip to Saraburi, the fuel rate was 15.5kpl driven at our usual rate of 120-140kph. Since the Alphard is the heavier car of the two, it naturally drank more gas, say by around 1-1.5kpl.

According to technical data compiled from Japan, the Estima and Alphard is roughly 30% more economical than the 100% petrol-run 220hp, 304Nm 3.0-litre V6 motors. And considering how well the hybrids perform, they are definitely here for the future.

To keep a long story short for those unfamiliar with hybrid engines, the batteries can generate and recharge power to help the petrol engine consume lesser fuel depending on driving conditions. Accelerate hard, batteries help yield power. Lift off the throttle, batteries recharge.

Whichever car you end up in, the merits are basically the same. Both the Estima and Alphard highlight spacious interior for six adults, large and comfortable seats for all and all kinds of convenience and luxury features.

And their prices aren't that bad at all. Compare them with the versions with conventional motors, the hybrid ones are the automatic choices.

For instance, the Estima with the normal 2.4 engine is sold be SEC Group at roughly three million baht depending on specification. The hybrid version costs 3.49 million baht.

The Alphard, on the other, sells for 3.35 million and 3.94 million baht for the 2.4 and V6 respectively. The hybrid variant costs 3.59 million baht.

Briefly put, you get decent fuel economy, yet with sufficient performance, with both of Toyota's hybrid MPVs.

Complete article with pictures at http://www.bangkokpost.net/250305_Motor ... otor59.php

[conan]

Mr. Szli, I present you...

...The Alphard Hybrid.

Toyota Launches Alphard Hybrid

TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION announced today the nationwide launch of the Alphard Hybrid, the hybrid version of the dynamic Alphard minivan,

The Alphard Hybrid features the Toyota Hybrid System-CVT (continuously variable transmission) (THS-C), which employs a hybrid battery with greater output than previous hybrid batteries and boasts better energy management. The system comprises a 2.4-liter high-efficiency gasoline engine, front motor and Super CVT and works in unison with an E-Four electric 4WD system that regulates a rear-mounted, rear-wheel-propelling electric motor and coordinates electric power distribution to all four wheels. An ECB (Electrically Controlled Brake system) provides efficient wheel-by-wheel brake control. Together, these features allow the Alphard Hybrid to simultaneously achieve groundbreaking high fuel efficiency, low emission levels and outstanding maneuverability and cruising stability.

The Alphard Hybrid can generate large amounts of electricity, which allows the use of a variety of home appliances, thus reaching new horizons in minivan enjoyment.

The advanced THS-C hybrid system efficiently uses engine and motor drive power, while the E-Four electric 4WD system recovers energy from each wheel, to achieve roughly twice the fuel efficiency called for by Japanese 2010 fuel efficiency standards (at 17.2km/liter in the 10-15 Japanese test cycle, as certified by Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) and greatly reduce CO2 emissions, despite the fact that the Alphard Hybrid is a 2-ton class 4WD vehicle. The Alphard Hybrid also qualifies as an ultra-low emission vehicle achieving emission levels 75% lower than 2000 standards under the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's Approval System for Low-emission Vehicles.

The high-efficiency 2.4-liter gasoline engine, front motor and Super CVT transmission combine to ensure a smooth and dynamic performance. The 4WD system provides better driving performance by using power from the rear-wheel drive motor when accelerating from start or on slippery road surfaces.

At the same time, ABS with EBD (Electronic Brake-force Distribution) and Brake Assist, along with VSC (Vehicle Stability Control), TRC (Traction Control System), ECB and the hybrid system integrate control of the electric 4WD system to coordinate electric power distribution and braking force to all four wheels for superior handling and driving stability by controlling the vehicle before it breeches the limits of normal controllable movement.

Taking advantage of its innovative hybrid system, the Alphard Hybrid can generate up to 1,500 watts of power while it is stationary or moving. It has standard household 100-volt AC power outlets that can be used to power a variety of home appliances, adding a new dimension to outdoor and business activities.

Monthly sales target: 600 units

Alphard Hybrid Boasts Functionality and Advanced Styling

Outstandingly low fuel consumption

The Alphard Hybrid realizes about twice the fuel efficiency specified by Japanese 2010 fuel efficiency standards while also qualifying as an ultra-low emission vehicle, consuming fuel at the rate of 1 liter every 17.2 kilometers (in the Japanese 10-15 test cycle).

To achieve this superior performance, the Alphard Hybrid's THS-C hybrid system efficiently combines the drive power of the engine and the front motor, and the E-Four electric 4WD system recovers energy from each wheel, while driving resistance has been reduced.

The insulated body and the newly developed two-way compressor incorporated in the motor optimize the use of the air conditioner, thus conserving fuel.

Reduced drive resistance

The highly aerodynamic body design along with reductions of the operating resistance in each part of the powertrain have reduced drive resistance and loss of drive energy, helping lower fuel consumption.

Insulated body

The specially developed windshield glass reduces the amount of solar radiation penetration and the roof and roof panels contain an insulating material to reduce cabin temperature, which helps conserve energy when the air conditioner is operating.

Intuitive air conditioning system

The Alphard Hybrid uses the world's first newly developed two-way compressor with a built-in motor. The engine powers the air conditioner when the engine is running, and the compressor's internal motor powers it when the engine is not running, helping to conserve energy and provide enhanced comfort.

Clean emissions

The Alphard Hybrid qualifies as an ultra-low emission vehicle achieving emission levels 75% lower than 2000 standards under the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's Approval System for Low-emission Vehicles.

Ultra-advanced driving performance

Hybrid system, E-Four

The THS-C hybrid system combines a 2.4-liter high-efficiency gasoline engine, front motor and Super CVT transmission. Its efficient use of drive power achieves low fuel consumption and enables a smooth ride. The E-Four electric 4WD system provides better driving performance by using power from the rear-wheel drive motor to optimize electric power distribution to all four wheels according to driving conditions. It provides additional drive power when needed, such as when accelerating from a standing start or on slippery surfaces.

Engine

Developed for hybrid vehicles, the 2.4-liter 2AZ-FXE engine has a high-expansion ratio cycle that enhances fuel economy by improving efficiency and reducing friction loss. Additionally, optimum control of the Super CVT and front motor create low emissions levels. Combined with the motor, the engine allows for powerful driving from low to high speeds.

Transaxles

The Super CVT's wide-range gear ratio allows the front transaxle to contribute to smooth driving from low to high speeds. The rear transaxle combines the rear motor and differential gear in a single unit, for a more lightweight and compact structure. This design eliminates the need for a propeller shaft, keeping overall weight increase to a minimum.

ECB (Electronically Controlled Brake) system

The ECB system adopts a by-wire system that uses electronic signals to detect the amount of pressure on the brake pedal and control the distribution of braking force. Independent as well as linear hydraulic controls for each wheel provide excellent environmental performance, outstanding handling and driving stability.

Environment-considerate brake system

Vehicle-mounted sensors provide information such as the amount of brake pedal operation, as well as vehicle speed. The system determines the most efficient distribution of labor between electric and hydraulic application of the brakes, in addition to using gathered information to calculate optimum hydraulic pressure. The ECB system is controlled together with the E-Four to maximize the collection and conversion of kinetic energy into electric power. The system also controls the brake pedal's rigidity in response to the amount of pressure applied, creating a natural braking feel.

Outstanding driving stability

The VSC and TRC systems, the ABS with EBD and Brake Assist, as well as the ECB system, the hybrid system and E-Four, integrate coordination, drive and control. Through these technologies, a groundbreaking level of driving stability has been achieved to make the car safer and easier to control before it breeches the limits of controllable movement.

Reaching new horizons in outdoor possibilities

Since the Alphard Hybrid's system can generate up to 1,500 watts of auxiliary power, it offers an expanded range of possibilities for outdoor activities.

Up to 1,500 watts of power

The hybrid system can generate up to 1,500 watts of power when the vehicle is stationary or moving, and has standard 100-volt household AC power outlets in its center cluster and luggage area. These outlets can be used to power home appliances such as hairdryers and microwave ovens and recharge items such as power-assisted bicycles and electric carts, adding a new dimension to leisure activities. Work equipment or equipment for the elderly or disabled can also be used with ease.


Exterior and interior design - Futuristic styling with a sense of presence

The styles of the hybrid-exclusive front grill, front bumper, headlights, LED rear combination lamp, rear garnish and emblem all work to mark a clear distinction from the Alphard G and Alphard V.

The front grill adopts the same paint color as the body. A chrome-plated latticework with two horizontal lines and a chrome-plated emblem create an elegant effect.

The Alphard Hybrid features solid bumpers that offer functionality and advanced styling. Square, dual-lens low-beam headlights enhance its hi-tech image.

The rear's combination lamps and high-mount brake light use LEDs to improve visibility and reduce electric power consumption. The rear garnish adopts the same color as the body, creating a sense of unity as a whole, and a gilded finish applied around the reversing lights accentuates the sense of sophistication.

The Alphard Hybrid comes in a total of five high-class colors, including the new hybrid-exclusive colors Pale Blue Mica Metallic and Light Purple Metallic, which are all appropriate for a distinctive vehicle body.

Complete article at http://www.autointell-news.com/News-200 ... -03-p1.htm

[conan]

More details about the Alphard Hybrid, if you understand Japanese, http://www.toyota.co.jp/netz/lineup/alphardhb/

[conan]

Satu hal lagi. Bagi Nissan, menjual model hybrid dianggap tidak menguntungkan. Ini karena mereka tidak memiliki investasi jangka panjang pada teknologi tersebut, dan harus membelinya.

Toyota dan Honda, para produsennya, jelas tidak berpikir begitu. Apakah Toyota dan Honda itu begitu bodohnya, burning their cash? Lalu mengapa Nissan membeli teknologi hybrid mereka?
Lagipula mereka akan mendapat keuntungan ketika Nissan membeli teknologi mereka. They can charge whatever they want, as know-how should be priced decently.

Mengatakan hybrid is not the way to go, mirip dengan mengatakan, misalnya, bahwa teknologi katup variabel is not the way to go, dulu ketika masih dikembangkan.
Sebagai contoh sederhana, kini, siapapun bisa melafalkan 'VTEC' dan 'VVTi', luar kepala. Sebagian orang mungkin bahkan hafal kepanjangannya.
But I dare you, cobalah tanya 10 orang yang Anda kenal, apa akronim atau kepanjangan dari teknologi katup variable dari Nissan?
Aku yakin, tidak banyak yang hafal.

A company widely known as the 'technical leader', but lacking in the R&D department? Hmm..isn't it ironic at best?

Research and Development (R&D) is one of the most crucial element in a product-oriented company.
Not having a sufficient budget for the R&D division will have its compromises, and it's definitely not a good long-term business strategy.

[conan]

Toyota Alphard Hybrid 2005 !!

[szli]

No lah ! si Ghosn ngak against Hybrid kok. My guess is he will order his researchers to keep studying hybrids, but he will only mass produce them when the costs have come down further.

Really, masalahnya di luar negeri, hybrids command a premium of 3000-5000 US$ per car. Now, how many people are willing to pay the premium ? Thats 28.5 to almost 50 juta !

I guess still many people look at the design, features and price and not only focus on irit bensin.

For example the Jazz is very irit, yet why still more people buy the Innova ? Soalnya Innova unggul di hal cabin space, 3 rows etc.

In USA, jika saya ngak salah ingat, last year, out of 16 million vehicles sold, only 88,000 are hybrids. Artinya Americans still focus more on other things other than just the engine. Also 3000-5000 dollars is not a small amount to fork out initially.

Saya mah ngak against hybrid. Just that Ghosn may be wrong. But he may be right too. Seperti jaman dot com mania. People laugh at Warren Buffett for refusing to invest in dot com stocks. They laugh at him for being a dinosaurus. But in the end, the dot coms proved overvalued, and Buffett wins.

Same with hybrids. If the costs can go down fast and A LOT of people buy them, Ghosn may miss the boat. But if the costs go down very slowly and people just refuse to buy them in millions, then Ghosn and Nissan will be a lot richer by then.

[conan]

Ahh, bung Szli, terasa sekali bahwa you're not being objective, you're being fanatic to Ghosn! Anda mengabaikan fakta2 yang ada.

Really, masalahnya di luar negeri, hybrids command a premium of 3000-5000 US$ per car. Now, how many people are willing to pay the premium ? Thats 28.5 to almost 50 juta !

Now read this from the Thailand review above :

And their prices aren't that bad at all. Compare them with the versions with conventional motors, the hybrid ones are the automatic choices.

For instance, the Estima with the normal 2.4 engine is sold be SEC Group at roughly three million baht depending on specification. The hybrid version costs 3.49 million baht.

The Alphard, on the other, sells for 3.35 million and 3.94 million baht for the 2.4 and V6 respectively. The hybrid variant costs 3.59 million baht.

Briefly put, you get decent fuel economy, yet with sufficient performance, with both of Toyota's hybrid MPVs.

And you said :

In USA, jika saya ngak salah ingat, last year, out of 16 million vehicles sold, only 88,000 are hybrids.

Anda pikir, 16 million vehicles ini sudah hybrid semua?
88,000 hybrids yang terjual adalah 100% mobil hybrid yang tersedia untuk dijual! Yaitu Prius, Civic IMA dsb. Dan waiting list untuk Prius dan Lexus RX400h masih sangat panjang, produksi untuk setahun ke depan sudah sold out! Dan berapa market share Nissan di pasar yang sangat prospective ini? Nol!

Jika Toyota sanggup menyediakan 200,000 atau 300,000 unit hybrids tahun ini, mereka akan terjual tanpa tersisa. Lihat saja nanti angka penjualan Lexus RX400h!

I guess still many people look at the design, features and price and not only focus on irit bensin.

Dan siapa yang bersedia memakai BBM dengan RON di bawah minimum requirement mobilnya, demi mengirit biaya bensin?

Jadi, jika misalnya suatu saat semua model Toyota dan Honda sudah hybrids sementara Nissan belum, dan semua orang have 1:16 Alphards and Stepwagons, Anda akan tetap membeli 1:8 Serenas?

My point is, hybrids are the future (please read the Alphard hybrid review above, it's one of your dream cars right?), and Ghosn and Nissan missed the boat. Others have been sailing to explore the uncharted waters full of unfound treasure chests!

[szli]

I will definitely buy a hybrid jika harganya mirip mobil standard. Tapi kalau saya harus bayar premium banyak, saya akan hitung dulu " balik modalnya " berapa lama. Jika terlalu lama, juga percuma dong. Why ? misalnya extra 40 juta. Dan breakeven pointnya 3 tahun. Soalnya 40 juta kan bisa belanja BANYAK bensin loh.

So the real cost is not 40 juta but harus include opportunity cost. What do I mean ? Look, in 3 years time saat tunggu break even, saya kan bisa invest uangnya itu. Assumsi per tahun 8 percent. Artinya at the end of 3 years, that 40 juta premium is worth 40x1.08x1.08x1.08 = 50 juta ! Dan kalau invest di saham yang per tahun bisa at least 15%, jadi 61 juta ! Thats A LOT of premium fuel, meskipun mobilnya 1:7 and hybrid 1:10 or what.

So for hybrids to be really popular, ongkosnya dan harganya harus benar benar OK, dan tidak di subsidi yang bebani pembayar pajak. If not, kan seperti beli alat menghemat BBM. Tapi kalau alatnya sendiri mahal, bisa saja orang jadi ogah.

Dan FYI, Toyota does NOT include R&D costs for hybrid research in pricing their vehicles. They argued that these R&D costs is for a wide range of vehicles spanned over a long future period. Fair enough. Cuman R&D are real cash outflows. No wonder they claim their hybrids are profitable. Sudah hilangkan R&D costs dan dapat subsidi lagi. Kalau Ghosn ngotot, equation dia tetap :

value of hybrids < costnya. for obvious reasons.

Thats a new accounting concept yang saya tidak pernah dengar. If I am Toyota, mau aman, mending R&D costnya masukin dong. soalnya saat ini those money sudah keluar, tapi kok di perhitunggan harga jualan ngak di hitung ? Will U do that in yr company ? Cuman cash Toyota lagi banyak, so they can get away with doing that. But such things cannot last forever right ?

Once again, saya tidak perlu anti hybrid. Cuman sebagai konsumen, I'll judge on my final cost, not just how much my fuel ratio is. Takutnya seperti Concorde. It proved a failure soalnya ongkosnya terlalu tinggi dan volume penumpangnya ngak cukup terus.

Sudah puluhan tahun of aviation technological advances after the first concorde flies, till today, tetap concept supersonic travel does not work. More concordes malah masuk museum sekarang.

Betul, Ghosn is human. Bisa saja dia salah hitung. But CEO Honda dan Toyota juga human also. They could also miscalculate. Buffett was alone against thousands of other smart fund managers who laugh at him for refusing to invest in dotcoms. But he alone proved correct ultimately.

Mungkin anda akan tanya, ngak relevant dong compare hybrids with internet companies ? They are different cases. For me, there are parallels :

Like hybrids, saat dotcom mania, banyak internet companies and dotcoms salesnya lagi naik tajam, like hybrids. Tapi some of them use creative accounting to mask the real situation, turning losses into profits.

Also, like hybrids, their FINAL bottomline masih rugi. Still many people pikir, ngak kok. Nanti juga pasti untung setelah omzetnya naik lagi.

But many of these dotcoms akhirnya ngak tahan juga gitu terus. Soalnya business model mereka proved tidak bisa profitable after years of trying. Akhirnya mereka di tinggalkan investors juga, dengan banyak kerugian. Internet is good and beneficial to us. But if their business model ngak bisa untung terus, gimana dong ?

Like hybrids, meskipun good for environment, hemat BBM etc. etc. tapi akhirnya juga seperti bung Hdrw pernah bilang, dunia ini, not just Indonesia, adalah UUD. Ujung ujung duit ! Loss money for long time juga di tinggalkan orang nanti.

Demikian hybrids. They are a promising tech, like Ghosn himself admits. But jika belum profitable, why boros tenaga dan resources ? Toyota kan lagi kaya. So they are betting that hybrids will ultimately be big volume and profitable. BUT if they are wrong, they will end up losing large amts of money like the dotcoms, God forbid.

Saya paham anda. Saya juga ngak bilang Toyota / Honda should stop their research or selling their subsidized hybrids. If they have the cash and calculations, go ahead.

Cuman pikiran Ghosn saya juga paham. Kalau di Indo istilah gini:

TAM misalnya jual Innova G A/T 180 juta. Nah, mereka juga jual Innova hybrid G A/T pulah. Tapi these are subsidized by say either SBY, or the Japanese government, or both. So who knows when these subsidies will end (with consequences seperti apa, mungkin hybrid lebih mahal lagi).

Assume these subsidies masih jalan. Orang Indo harus bayar extra say 40 juta, jadi Innova G A/T hybrid harganya jadi 220 juta.

Nah, anda lihat beda jauhnya sales versi V yang cuman beda 20 juta banding G saja, anda akan inggat, pasar mobil itu sering terpengaruh harga, initial cash outlay. Betul, hybrid lebih hemat BBM. Tapi ya itu, how many people rela say good bye to 40 juta lagi ? Dan juga saya pernah baca, ongkos service apalagi ganti battery hybrid itu juga tidak murah.

So if hybrids did not turn out to be profitable after a few more years, dan juga jika saat itu governments / taxpayers get tired dan cabut subsidinya, hybrid mau jadi apa nanti ? Lebih di tinggalkan konsumen soalnya Innova G hybrid jadi say 250 juta (ngak tau subsidinya hybrid seberapa).

Mr. Conan, anda kan juga paling tidak setuju subsidi BBM di Indonesia as wasteful of taxpayers money and salah sasaran. Now, lots of subsidized hybrids sold kan juga boros uang subsidi ?

Betul, hybrids bantu reduce konsumsi BBM. Tapi money is a scarce and precious resource. Seperti boss and founder of [cencored] pernah bilang, jika satu company, sudah capek capek kerja, buang waktu karyawan dan telan banyak resources, tetap tidak bisa profitable, he feels it like a kind of " crime ". So artinya, hybrids hemat BBM, tapi counterbalanced by lebih boros konsumsi resource lain, yaitu money and time.

Toh kalau ngak salah, saya pernah baca, beda hybrid ama standard ngak heboh banget. Malah ada mobil mini yang mesin kecil pakai mesin standard lebih irit banding hybrid !

So now I wonder, how many people wants to buy an Innova hybrid for an extra 40 juta, dan itupun assumsi subsidi masih berjalan ? Mungkin luar negeri ada chance di masa depan. Tapi takutnya seperti di Indo.

Orang sini ada saja yang rela cuman selisih 5 juta, rela beli kijang bekas banding yang baru ! Thats why resale value kijang kapsul dulu gitu hebat ! Orang sini beli mobil di atas 100 juta, meskipun ambil risiko beli mobil bekas, hemat 5-10 juta saja OK. I wonder why ? I think thats idiotic. Mending spend an extra 5 juta dan hilangkan risiko mobil bekas tabrakan, bekas banjir, etc.

[szli]

Oh one more thing. Saat Concorde di ciptakan, kita harus sadar, boss boss perusahaan aerospace company yang bikin Concorde, and their financial advisers, engineers, scientists all are smart people. Mereka tidak bodoh ! Betulkan ?

Like Toyota, they are betting that their calculations and projections will be correct.

Cuman, namanya manusia, kadang " Suan Cuo Le ! ". Salah hitung ! Opps. 1+1 is not equal to 2 or 5 but 0.5 !

These big companies juga ciptakan Concorde not for losing money, but to make money. Kalau ngak ngapain keluar milliaran dollar untuk bikin pesawat hebat dan mahal itu ?

I am not saying Ghosn is 100% right and the hybrid guys wrong. Cuman saat ini, gambarnya belum jelas. Who is ultimately right belum ketahuan. Remember buddy, ideals are good, wonderful, romantic. But here on Earth, its UUD that counts !

Toh minyak sudah ngak banyak. Hybrids just slow down, not eliminate BBM consumption, at great cost of money and time. I wonder maybe its better to use all those hybrid subsidies and time to mempercepat research on alternative powers and systems untuk jaman nanti minyak sudah habis.

But Ghosn seems interested in making the already irit and powerful diesels even better, and without burdening taxpayers. Isn't this wonderful, buddy Conan the diesel lover ?

[conan]

I will definitely buy a hybrid jika harganya mirip mobil standard. Tapi kalau saya harus bayar premium banyak, saya akan hitung dulu " balik modalnya " berapa lama. Jika terlalu lama, juga percuma dong. Why ? misalnya extra 40 juta. Dan breakeven pointnya 3 tahun. Soalnya 40 juta kan bisa belanja BANYAK bensin loh.

So the real cost is not 40 juta but harus include opportunity cost. What do I mean ? Look, in 3 years time saat tunggu break even, saya kan bisa invest uangnya itu. Assumsi per tahun 8 percent. Artinya at the end of 3 years, that 40 juta premium is worth 40x1.08x1.08x1.08 = 50 juta ! Dan kalau invest di saham yang per tahun bisa at least 15%, jadi 61 juta !

Tidak masuk akal. Jika Anda benar2 mau menghemat itu extra 40 juta in the first place, mengapa Anda beli Serena HS dan bukan Innova, misalnya? Anda beli Serena HS = 280 juta. Mengapa Anda tidak beli saja sebuah Innova G seharga 160 juta, dan invest itu lebihnya yang 120 juta? Itu tiga kali lipat dari extra 40 juta yang Anda sebut, dan dengan perhitungan Anda, itu 120 juta bisa jadi 183 juta!

Anda beli Serena HS daripada Innova G karena Anda merasa Serena HS itu mobil yang lebih modern, and gives you more values for the money, kan? 120 juta saja Anda bersedia bayar, apakah Anda tidak bersedia bayar lebih mahal 40 juta lagi untuk sebuah C25 Hybrid, misalnya?

Dan Anda selalu komentar tentang hybrid itu disubsidi, disubsidi, disubsidi. Bisakah Anda tunjukkan dengan jelas, tepatnya di mana mobil hybrids itu disubsidi? Apakah setiap orang Amerika yang membeli Lexus RX400h akan mendapat uang $10,000 dari pemerintah Amerika?

Yang mensubsidi mobil hybrid adalah Toyota (dan Honda) sendiri. Pemerintah (di negara yg sadar energi) memberikan insentif dan keringanan, karena mereka sangat mendukung.

Dan FYI, Toyota does NOT include R&D costs for hybrid research in pricing their vehicles. They argued that these R&D costs is for a wide range of vehicles spanned over a long future period. Fair enough. Cuman R&D are real cash outflows. No wonder they claim their hybrids are profitable. Sudah hilangkan R&D costs dan dapat subsidi lagi. Kalau Ghosn ngotot, equation dia tetap :

value of hybrids < costnya. for obvious reasons.

Thats a new accounting concept yang saya tidak pernah dengar. If I am Toyota, mau aman, mending R&D costnya masukin dong. soalnya saat ini those money sudah keluar, tapi kok di perhitunggan harga jualan ngak di hitung ? Will U do that in yr company ? Cuman cash Toyota lagi banyak, so they can get away with doing that. But such things cannot last forever right ?

Di mana2 juga, R&D itu biaya yang ditanggung perusahaan dan tidak dibebankan pada konsumen. Kalau ditanggung konsumen, Innova tentu akan jauh lebih mahal daripada Kapsul dong, misalnya? Atau setiap mobil baru akan significantly lebih mahal daripada mobil lama?

Kenyataannya tidak, karena biaya R&D dan investasi itu sudah dihitung dan diserap dalam produk yang dijual selama lifespannya. Buktinya, mobil kini semakin murah padahal semakin canggih, bukannya semakin mahal! 10 tahun lalu apakah Anda bisa beli mobil dengan CVT seperti Serena Anda sekarang? Nah, apakah CVT itu bikin mobil mahal? Sekarang malah kita bisa beli Jazz yang irit, pakai CVT, juga muat 5 orang dengan lega, dengan harga yang murah.

Lalu, apakah Anda pikir subsidi ini adalah strategi business yang jelek?
Tahukah Anda mengapa Sony bisa begitu sukses dengan PlayStation mereka? Ini karena selama lebih dari setengah lifespan hardware PlayStation 1 atau 2, Sony menSUBSIDI harga hardwarenya! Tidak seperti Sega dan Nintendo yang ingin mendapat untung dari hardware juga, Sony berani mensubsidi besar2an untuk merebut pasar, menambah installed base dan memperkuat brand imagenya.

Hari ini, console apa yang paling sukses di dunia, yang bahkan mengubah persepsi bahwa videogame bukan hanya untuk anak kecil?
Bung Szli, Anda sendiri main PS2 kan?

Sama seperti Sony dan PlayStation, Toyota dan Honda kini menanam sedikit, tapi mereka akan menuai banyak!

Takutnya seperti Concorde. It proved a failure soalnya ongkosnya terlalu tinggi dan volume penumpangnya ngak cukup terus.

Sudah puluhan tahun of aviation technological advances after the first concorde flies, till today, tetap concept supersonic travel does not work. More concordes malah masuk museum sekarang.

FYI, kini Jepang dan Prancis sedang mengembangkan pesawat komersial supersonik yang bisa mencapai 5 kali kecepatan suara. Dalam beberapa tahun akan operational.

Betul, Ghosn is human. Bisa saja dia salah hitung. But CEO Honda dan Toyota juga human also. They could also miscalculate. Buffett was alone against thousands of other smart fund managers who laugh at him for refusing to invest in dotcoms. But he alone proved correct ultimately.

Buffet is not Ghosn. Jika Anda bisa mengibaratkan Carlos sebagai Buffet, aku juga bisa mengibaratkan Buffet sebagai Fujio Cho. See my point?

And for the last time, hybrid is not dotcom. Hybrids are real, tangible, while dotcoms are not.

Jika Anda mengibaratkan hybrid sebagai dotcom, aku akan mengibaratkan hybrid sebagai the internet. Toyota dan Honda ibaratnya sedang developing broadband, WiFi, WiMaz, sementara Ghosn dan Nissan sedang bersikeras bahwa 56k Dial-Up is still the way to go! Ha!

Betul, hybrids bantu reduce konsumsi BBM. Tapi money is a scarce and precious resource.

Today, Mr. Szli, OIL is more scarce dan more precious! Paper money tidak ada artinya lagi. 2 tahun lalu, $24 bisa beli 1 barrel oil. Hari ini? Anda butuh $ 56! Dua tahun lagi? Who knows, Anda bisa butuh $80 atau $100!

Dan jika kita hendak melestarikan dunia ini untuk anak cucu, generasi mendatang, yang mana yang lebih baik kita hemat : persediaan minyak dunia (yang butuh jutaan tahun baru bisa diperbaharui), atau persediaan uang kertas (yang bisa dicetak terus)?

Mr. Szli, cobalah being objective for once. Aku ini fans Nissan juga, juga fans Carlos Ghosn.
Tapi ketika NMI membuat blunder dengan C24, I was the first to point that out.
Penjualan Nissan meningkat pesat di pasar Amerika, tapi ada konsekuensinya, mereka mengurangi standar kualitas interior untuk menekan harga jual, maka konsumen menghukum mereka dan kini mereka sedang berusaha memperbaiki 'taktik' mereka. Ini juga aku mengakuinya.

Dan kini Nissan tertinggal dalam hybrids, di depan umum mereka tidak mau mengakuinya dan mengatakan bahwa hybrid is not the future, tapi di belakang mereka diam2 membeli teknologi hybrid dari Toyota (Nissan akan menjual Altima hybrid di USA tahun depan, karena kalau tidak mereka akan kehilangan pasar), dan mereka juga sedang diam2 mengembangkan dan mencoba mendapatkan paten untuk teknologi hybrid 4WD mereka sendiri.

Akan tiba saatnya di mana Nissan akan memiliki banyak model hybrid, dan mereka akan berhenti berkomentar bahwa hybrid is not the way to go, malah mereka akan gencar juga mempromosikan model2 hybrid mereka. Powered by Toyota.

[conan]

So artinya, hybrids hemat BBM, tapi counterbalanced by lebih boros konsumsi resource lain, yaitu money and time.

Ya ampun, bung Szli, jika semua orang berpikiran seperti Anda, bahwa tidak pantas menginvestasikan waktu dan uang untuk teknologi baru yang lebih cost-efficient, tidak akan ada pabrikan otomotif yang membuat mesin baru! Semua mobil yang dijual hari ini akan bermesin Kijang Kapsul! Murah perawatannya dan suku cadangnya! Siapa yg peduli tentang kadar emisinya??

Justru, money dan time harus digunakan sebaik2nya. Waktu itu berjalan terus, lebih baik mana, seorang ilmuwan menghabiskan 30 tahun umurnya untuk mencari obat AIDS, atau 30 tahun berjualan obat?

Uang juga, yang namanya uang itu bisa dicari lagi. Tapi ketika minyak di bumi ini habis, Anda punya 1 trilyun dollar pun, tidak bisa membeli satu liter minyak tanah!

[conan]

But Ghosn seems interested in making the already irit and powerful diesels even better, and without burdening taxpayers. Isn't this wonderful, buddy Conan the diesel lover ?

Ever heard, of, Diesel + electric motors = Hybrid Diesel?

Speaking of which, model Nissan apa saja yang sudah diesel di sini?
Atau Indo hanya menjadi tempat pembuangan mesin2 yg sudah outdated? Sementara di Eropa dan Jepang, Renault-Nissan sudah memakai mesin2 standard Euro IV or V, bagaimana dengan di Indo?
Di Jepang sudah MR20DE, di sini malah akan muncul X-Trail 2.0 yang masih QD20DE?
Hmm?

[conan]

Satu2nya alasan mengapa Carlos Ghosn dan Nissan hari ini tidak mengakui hybrid is the technology adalah karena mereka terlambat, karena dulu sibuk membenahi cashflow yang negative.

Kita tidak mendengar Ghosn mengatakan diesel is not the future kan? Ini karena Renault sudah maju dalam diesel.

Jika hari ini Nissan-Renault sudah maju dalam hybrid, aku yakin 100% Ghosn tidak akan berkata bahwa hybrid is not the future!

Hypocrisy is only human nature.

[szli]

Betul, but U really think that oil is more precious than money ? Coba, tell the worl's scientist to do research on alternative powered vehicles and say I will not pay U at all. Pls just do it for the World's sake. Do U think they want to do it ?

Dan orang Indo saja masih ragukan mutu diesel sendiri. Lihat nasip D4D Innova. WHy should any ATPM bring in their latest diesels here if Konsumen di sini ngak enthusiast dan mutu solarnya saja banyak yang geleng geleng kepala ?

Abt that subsidi thing, I read that American hybrid buyers can obtain tax credits or something like that. Of course they don't get cash, but subsidized in one way or another.

Oh, saat minyak di bumi habis, whats the difference ? hybrids juga ngak bisa jalan. We will all go back to our great great great grandparents era, pakai kaki, sepeda, atau horse carriage !

Unless someones find an alternative powered vehicle yang tidak pakai bensin.

Oh by the way, bung Conan, U should not think that Nissan or me supports the thinking, cuman jualan, ngak usah research. Look at what they are doing. They are still researching better diesels, other engines, thats why the MR20DE muncul setelah research. And she is 30% better than the old one in terms of BBM consumption.

And how do U know if Nissan's engineers are studying hybrids or not ? Do U think they are stupid enough to ignore hybrids totally ? Let me say, they are still researching and pursuing hybrids also, but they just refuse to sell them NOW at a LOSS.

Nanti saat ongkos componentsnya sudah turun dan konsumen bisa beli tanpa credits or whatever, can tinggal produksi. No big deal. Nissan can research hybrids without selling them. They can keep testing their prototypes in their own R&D premises.

Cuman Toyota dan Honda memang pintar. Mereka manfaatkan subsidi dan taxpayers resources, dan jualan dulu, supaya imagenya jadi hebat, bersih.

And U don't seem to believe in hybrids being subsidized. First, I read abt US credits for hybrid buyers. Surf the net I forgot the website. 2nd, if what Ghosn said in his book abt subsidies is totally untrue, dia kan langsung di tertawakan orang di seluruh dunia automotif kan ? Saat ini, siapa yang di koran bilang Ghosn is lying abt those subsidies ?

And buddy, the QR25DE has 180 horses. The Toyota 2TR-FE in the Innova / Fortuner 2.7 has 160 horses. Hmm ? Kok mesin lebih besar 200 cc malah kalah tenaganya ?

Jangan panas dulu. Nanti kita lihat when the hybrid arrives in Indonesia (if ever soon), how many people will buy and whats the price like.

Toh importir umum sangat cepat sekarang. Saya mau lihat nanti saat, dan kapan mereka mulai jual hybrid, dan apa reaksi pasar nanti.

Ivans, VPM, anyone selling hybrids now ? Saya inggin lihat.

[conan]

Seperti headlines hari ini : Stok BBM krisis, kata Pertamina.

Ini karena Indonesia yg memiliki ladang minyak pun, masih harus import untuk memenuhi total kebutuhan dalam negri. Bayangkan jika minyak Indo sudah habis.

Terlihat bukan, mana yang lebih bernilai, uang kertas atau minyak?

Jika tidak ada minyak, uang segudang pun percuma, satu2nya kegunaan adalah dibakar.

[szli]

Betul, cuman saya pernah baca, sebenernya minyak masih banyak di bumi. Cuman lokasinya sangat dalam dan susah / MAHAL untuk di keluarkan. So, UUD lagi deh ! No money, mau keluarkan minyak di perut SANGAT dalam di bumi, no way !

Unless bung, one day there is a miracle, many workers around the world and companies are willing to drill and spend tons of resources , power time to suck out the remaining very difficult to reach oil reserves tanpa financial payment. Cuman jika anda lihat koran tiap hari, sifat manusia belum sebagus itu.

Even if there is no oil, don't worry buddy, uang masih kepakai kok. Tanya saja nenek moyang kita yang dulu hidup pakai lilin, pakai sepeda, cuci baju pakai air dan tangan sendiri. Saat itu, no money juga pusing mereka, meskipun jaman itu mereka ngak pakai BBM !

Money is the grease that runs the World's economy. Without money, gimana yah ?

Come on everybody, lets sing to the tune of ABBA's song - " MONEY MONEY MONEY, ITS SO FUNNY, ITS A RICH MAN'S WORLD ! " repeat... Hahaha !

[szli]

Bung Conan, its nice debating with U. Seperti light saber duel, cuman since its a friendly duel, no arms will be cut off right ?

I understand yr excitement abt hybrids. Bisa hemat BBM.

Cuman I wish to convert U not only to the dark side, but also to the UUD religion.

Memang saya juga kadang sedih, kok di dunia ini uang sangat berpengaruh dan all mighty.

Tapi pikir pikir, kalau ngak pakai system uang di negara mana pun, ngak ada alternative system yang bisa jalankan roda dunia. Barter system dulu pernah di pakai tapi sudah punah.

So segudang duit masih bisa biayakan hidup kita dan keluarga untuk sangat lama. Segudang BBM kalau di jual juga jadi uang, so why sell, kena komisi broker, uang kirim, uang sogokan untuk ijin menjual uang, uang kuli liar, biaya keamanan etc. Ambil mentahnya saja.

Kalau ngak di jual, betul, bisa ajak keluarga jalan jalan ke seluruh dunia. Tapi during that mother of all journeys pakai segudang BBM itu, perlu service, ganti oli, makan, kencing, belanja, etc. Tanpa uang, ya juga short lived holiday itu. Paling mobilnya mogok di jalan, kita lihat scenery.

As a Singapore TV series sang in their theme song, Uang memang ngak bisa lakukan SEMUA hal, tapi TANPA uang, SEMUAnya tidak bisa di lakukan.

For those who knows Mandarin - " Qian Bu Shi Wan neng, dan, meiyou Qian, shemo dou wan wan bu neng ! "

So saya ngak salahin Ghosn so money and profit minded. Dia capek capek sulap kerugian Nissan tahun 1999 jadi untung, sudah kapok pasti dia. Pasti alerhi banget ama sesuatu yang RUGI !

Who knows dia sekarang mau cepat tumpuk sebanyak banyak uangnya, dan nanti, sudah segudang uang, baru keluar jurus barunya yang lebih heboh dari hybrid ? After all he knows that really SERIOUS R&D needs LOTS of SERIOUS amts of money !

Without money, jangan bilang BBM segudang, saudara saja belum tentu mau nolong. Iya gak ! Malah mereka dan teman semua lari ! Takut saya pinjam uang ! Thats life lah !

One more time, sing " MONEY MONEY ..."

[szli]

Also meskipun BBM habis, kalau banyak uang, saya bisa recruit 10 pembantu untuk cuci baju tanpa mesin cuci, cuci carriage saya yang propelled by 10 orang seperti raja jaman dulu (wah, masih ada 10 supir, ngak perlu stir sendiri), recruit 10 orang tukang kipas supaya saya, istri dan anak each have his own tukang kipas, supaya ngak kepanasan di jaman no listrik untuk jalankan AC,

No lightbulb, pasang aja 1000 lilin tiap kamar, di jamin terang seperti Lampu phillips dan romantik lagi !

Also ngak ada TV, no problem, pakai uang suruh tiap hari panggil dance troupe, tukang sulap seperti Deddy Corbusier, Agnes Monica suruh nyanyi terus sampai lidahnya bengkak,

with money, no BBM benar benar OK ! Hidup masih enak kok. Just ask yr old great grandpa who is filthy rich !